WTI oil futures inch higher ahead of weekly supply data

              U.S. oil futures inched higher in rangebound trade on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. weekly supply data due later in the day to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD92.94 a barrel during European morning trade, up 0.2%. New York-traded oil futures held in a tight range between USD92.63 a barrel and USD93.03 a barrel.

The March contract settled 0.84% higher on Tuesday to end at USD92.78 a barrel as upbeat December retail sales data helped offset concerns about the U.S. economy following Friday's weak jobs report.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, the low from January 13 and resistance at USD93.56 a barrel, the high from January 10. 

Wednesday’s government report was expected to show that crude oil stockpiles fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were forecast to increase by 2.6 million barrels.

After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.14 million barrels in the week ended January 10, compared to expectations for a decline of 1.6 million barrels.

The data also showed that gasoline stockpiles increased by 5.36 million barrels, above expectations for a gain of 2 million barrels.

Investors also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation and a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus. The central bank is scheduled to meet January 28-29 to review the economy and assess policy.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for February delivery inched down 0.15% to trade at USD105.45 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at USD12.51 a barrel.

London-traded Brent prices have been under pressure in recent sessions as the prospect of a rise in Iranian oil exports weighed. - investing.com

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Gold edges lower after World Bank raises global growth forecast

                 Gold prices were lower on Wednesday, after the World Bank upgraded its global economic growth forecasts.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,239.60 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.45%. Gold prices held in a range between USD1,238.00 a troy ounce and USD1,244.90 a troy ounce.

The February contract settled 0.46% lower on Tuesday to end at USD1,245.40 a troy ounce as upbeat December retail sales data helped offset concerns about the U.S. economy following Friday's weak jobs report.

Futures were likely to find support at USD1,226.60 a troy ounce, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD1,254.90, the high from January 14.

Meanwhile, silver for March delivery declined 0.9% to trade at USD20.10 a troy ounce. The March contract ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 0.51% to settle at USD20.28 a troy ounce.

In its bi-annual Global Economic Prospects report released earlier, the World Bank said that global growth is set to accelerate 3.2% this year, compared with a June projection of 3% and up from 2.4% in 2013.

The forecast for developed nations was raised to 2.2% from 2%, citing improved outlooks for both the U.S. and the euro zone.

Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation and a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Investors have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus. The central bank is scheduled to meet January 28-29 to review the economy and assess policy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper futures for March delivery fell 0.75% to trade at USD3.312 a pound. Copper prices moved lower after data showed that Chinese bank lending and money supply growth for December came in below expectations, underlining concerns over liquidity levels.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - investing.com

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Copper declines on U.S. recovery concerns

          Copper futures fell on Monday, after disappointing U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.

Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.55%. Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.322 a pound and USD3.367 a pound.

The March contract ended Friday’s session up 1.29% to settle at USD3.341 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.289 a pound, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD3.377 a pound, the high from January 8.

The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.
The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 6.7% last month from 7% in November, but this was due in part to people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to an almost 35-year low of 62.8%.

The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.

Minutes of the Fed’s December meeting released last week showed that officials were keen to stress that further reductions in stimulus were not on a “preset course” and would be undertaken in “measured” steps. The central bank is scheduled to meet January 28-29 to review the economy and assess policy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for February delivery dipped 0.1% to trade at USD1,245.40 a troy ounce, while silver for March delivery shed 0.75% to trade at USD20.07 a troy ounce. investing.com

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Silver prices turn lower after hitting 5-week high

     Silver prices were lower on Monday, as traders booked profits from a recent rally which took prices to a five-week high earlier in the session.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver for March delivery shed 0.75% to trade at USD20.07 a troy ounce during European morning trade. Comex silver prices rose to a session high of USD20.35 a troy ounce earlier, the strongest level since December 11.
The March contract ended Friday’s session up 2.74% at USD20.22 a troy ounce. Futures were likely to find support at USD19.54 a troy ounce, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD20.47, the high from December 11.

Meanwhile, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,246.00 a troy ounce, down 0.07%. Gold prices climbed to a daily high of USD1,254.00 a troy ounce earlier, the strongest since December 12.

Comex gold prices settled 1.42% higher on Friday to end at USD1,246.90 a troy ounce. Futures were likely to find support at USD1,226.60 a troy ounce, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD1,256.50, the high from December 12.

The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.
The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 6.7% last month from 7% in November, but this was due in part to people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to an almost 35-year low of 62.8%.

The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.
Minutes of the Fed’s December meeting released last week showed that officials were keen to stress that further reductions in stimulus were not on a “preset course” and would be undertaken in “measured” steps.

The central bank is scheduled to meet January 28-29 to review the economy and assess policy. Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold and silver, as the precious metals are seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper futures for March delivery declined 0.35% to trade at USD3.331 a pound. investing.com

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Gold prices ease in Asia ahead of HSBC China Nov flash PMI

                  Gold prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday, continuing declines seen overnight after the Federal Reserve said in the minutes of its October policy meeting that it could begin tapering asset purchases in the coming months.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,245.70 a troy ounce, down 0.98%, in a range of 1,241.70 - 1,246.90. Overnight, gold prices hit a session low of USD1,240.30 a troy ounce and high of USD1,275.70 a troy ounce.

On the horizon Thursday in Asia is the closely watched HSBC November flash purchasing managers index for China, forecast to come out at 50.8, easing from 50.9 for the final in October at 0945 local time (0145 GMT). China and India are the world's top gold importers.

Also ahead is a Bank of Japan policy announcement at 1230 local time (0330 GMT) with the benchmark rate forecast stable at 0.10%. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a news conference at 1530 local time (0630 GMT).

In the U.S. a decision to taper the pace of assets will come when economic indicators point to an economy that is clearly gaining steam, and although monetary authorities did not suggest when that time may arrive, metals markets felt it will come soon.

"During this general discussion of policy strategy and tactics, participants reviewed issues specific to the Committee's asset purchase program. They generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee's outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months," the minutes read.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Department reported earlier that retail sales expanded 0.4% in October, blowing past expectations for a 0.1% gain after coming in flat the month earlier.

The data fueled optimism that the consumer-driven U.S. economy is on the mend and may keep the Federal Reserve on track to begin winding down stimulus measures in early 2014.

On Thursday, the U.S. is release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to release data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed. - investing.com

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NYMEX crude oil weakens in early Asia trade, focus on Iran talks

               Crude oil prices eased in Asia early Thursday with a continued focus on talks over Iran's nuclear program and related sanctions imposed by Western countries.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD93.67, down 0.20%, in a range of 93.59 - 93.83.

On the horizon Thursday in Asia is the closely watched HSBC November flash purchasing managers index for China, forecast to come out at 50.8, easing from 50.9 for the final in October at 0945 local time (0145 GMT). China and India are the world's top gold importers.

Also ahead is a Bank of Japan policy announcement at 1230 local time (0330 GMT) with the benchmark rate forecast stable at 0.10%. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a news conference at 1530 local time (0630 GMT).

Overnight, oil prices see-sawed in trade, ending up largely on positive inventory data out of the U.S., but talks among Western delegates and Iran to close the latter's alleged nuclear weapons program will come to fruition wiped out gains. The commodity hit a session low of USD93.26 and a high of USD94.48 on Wednesday.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery, which expired Wednesday, fell to USD93.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the January contract declined to USD93.85 a barrel.

Brent crude for January delivery on ICE Futures Europe climbed 1.1% to USD108.06 a barrel. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 375,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, below expectations for an increase of 900,000 barrels. 

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 388.5 million barrels.

In Geneva, talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran opened with hopes building that progress will be made to dismantle Tehran's nuclear program.

A deal would resume the flow of Iranian crude into global markets and lower prices, as trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels per day of oil from the global market.

Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its October policy meeting earlier in which monetary authorities said conditions warranting a decision to taper asset purchases may arrive in the coming months. - investing.com

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NYMEX crude oil down in early Asia trade on Iran talks prospects

               Crude Oil prices fell slightly in early Asian trade on Tuesday on easing geopolitical concerns as Western and Iranian diplomats look to make progress this week in efforts to end a nuclear impasse and resume the flow of Iranian crude into global markets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD93.64 a barrel, down 0.05%, and in a range of USD93.55 - USD93.69.

Later this week in Geneva, talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran will open with hopes building that progress will be made to dismantle Tehran's nuclear program.

A deal would resume the flow of Iranian crude into global markets and lower prices, as trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels per day of oil from the global market.

Meanwhile, in supply news, Saudi Arabia’s Joint Organizations Data Initiative said the country produced approximately 10.12 million barrels of oil a day and shipped 7.84 million barrels in September, healthy figures that also pressured prices lower.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts, which also pushed oil prices lower.

Brent crude for January delivery on ICE Futures Europe also sank further, declining 0.5%, to USD107.90 a barrel. - investing.com

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Gold prices ease slightly in early Asian trade following overnight drop

              Gold prices eased slightly in early Asian trade on Tuesday with the dollar holding largely steady from overnight levels following comments by a Federal Reserve official that were hopeful on the economic outlook.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,273.40 a troy ounce, down 0.04%, in a range of 1,272.50 - 1,275.50. Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,269.60 a troy ounce and high of USD1,289.00 a troy ounce overnight.

Gold prices dropped overnight after Federal Reserve Bank of New President William C. Dudley said he was hopeful the U.S. economy will see better days ahead and stoked hopes that the U.S. central bank will begin scaling back stimulus tools more likely sooner than later, likely in early 2014.

Stimulus tools such as the Fed's USD85 billion in monthly bond prices seek to spur recovery by driving down interest rates, weakening the U.S. dollar in the process and thus making gold an attractive hedge.

Comments from Dudley, often viewed as a policy dove, pushed gold prices lower by stoking sentiments that the Fed will announce plans to scale back asset purchases in early 2014, likely around March.

Elsewhere, National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in unchanged in November at 54, missing analysts' calls for an uptick to 55 this month, though metals markets shrugged off the report. - investing.com

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Precious Metals Flat While Industrial Metals Ease

                 Gold is kicking off the week flat….. The shiny metal is trading at 1287.10 in the Asian session Monday moving between small gains and losses with no direction. Disappointing US data on Friday had a silver lining, US manufacturing production came in lower than expected but still showed growth and expansion. Against Septembers larger than expected climb, October’s slight miss could be expected. Otherwise there was little guidance and this week’s midmonth calendar will leave investors looking for a reason to trade. 

At the end of last week traders moved to higher risk assets, pushing equities to trade at record highs and leaving the currency and commodity markets bored and lacking. Rising stock markets could curb investors’ interest in the yellow metal even as they weigh how long the US can avoid paring its $85-billion-a-month stimulus program. A majority of analysts now feel that the paring could begin from March. Some clue should be available during mid-week when the US Fed will be releasing the minutes of its October 29-30 meeting while traders try to evaluate the outcome of the December 18^th meeting.

Cutting of bullish bets by money managers and hedge funds, for the third consecutive week, could have a bearish effect on the bullion. Data on eurozone trade, US net capital flows and NHB housing index could provide further cues for gold later in the day.

The impact on global supply and demand in 2013 for gold has been dramatic. Because exchange-traded gold products – legal trusts whose debts are denominated in gold bullion, and which then own physical bullion to back their shares’ value – have flowed from one side of the ledger to the other.

 Adding an average 45 tons to their collective hoard every 3 months as investment flowed in between 2005 and late 2012, the giant SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and its smaller competitor from iShares (IAU) have turned net sellers this year. Together, they’ve sold back some 160 tons per quarter, accounting for two-thirds of 2013′s total gold ETF liquidation of 700 tons. Gold ETF’s have been steadily declining over the past weeks as traders try to decide on future FOMC plans.

Gold is heading for the first annual loss since 2000 as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and global equities climbed 18 percent. Janet Yellen, nominee to replace Ben S. Bernanke as Federal Reserve Chairman, signaled on Nov. 14 that she’d continue the record stimulus program until the U.S. economy is stronger. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent to close at an all-time high on Nov. 15.

Silver has also eased this morning declining to 20.712 down by 15 points but with no conviction. Over the weekend data showed a continued climb in housing prices in China but otherwise there has been little data. Copper remains in the red also down by 5 points at 3.167 way below its average trading above the 3.20 price level. China’s Communist Party signaled a bigger focus on fiscal concerns during President Xi Jinping’s tenure, setting the scene for a clampdown to control the finances of indebted regional authorities weighing on industrial members. The US dollarremains flat having very little effect on commodity prices as the week begins.  - fxempire.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                  Natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Friday to hit a three-week high, as updated weather forecasting models continued to point to colder than average temperatures in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December advanced 1.53% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.660 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices rallied to a session high of USD3.667 earlier, the strongest level since October 29. The December contract settled 1.09% higher on Thursday to end at USD3.605 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.491 per million British thermal units, the low from November 14 and resistance at USD3.683, the high from October 29.

On the week, December natural gas prices rose 2.75%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Updated weather forecasting models called for chilly temperatures across most parts of the eastern half of the U.S. during the next six-to-ten-days.

Forecasts originally called for mild weather during the period.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 20 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with forecasts.

Inventories rose by 12 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 19 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.834 trillion cubic feet as last week, 2% below last year's unusually high level but 1.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage data range from 15 billion cubic feet to 41 billion cubic feet, compared to a 36 billion cubic feet draw during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 2 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 0.8% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery rose 2.48% on the week to settle at USD2.941 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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