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13 Feb 2014

PRECIOUS-Gold near 3-month high on lower dollar ahead of US data

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               LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Gold hovered below a three-month high on Thursday, struggling to break above $1,300 as investor caution ahead of a series of U.S. economic figures offset support from a sharply lower dollar and weaker equity markets.
Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,291.61 an ounce by 1101 GMT, having hit a three-month high of $1,295.91 on Wednesday.
Traders said there was strong technical resistance at the $1,300 level, last seen on Nov. 8.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down 0.3 percent at $1,291.80 an ounce.
"The gold market is still holding quite well but is having some difficulties to test the $1,300 psychological barrier as traders are digesting the gains made earlier in the week," Quantitative Commodity Research owner Peter Fertig said.
"That level could be breached as long as the environment for the metal remains positive, with some uncertainty in the equity markets and a lower dollar ahead of today's data."
The dollar fell 0.5 percent against a basket of major currencies, while a rally in global shares ended after a week of gains on relief over the continuity in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, hints that the European Central Bank could provide more support in the euro zone and an easing of pressure on emerging markets.
Usually, gold holds an inverse correlation with the dollar, with a weaker U.S. currency making the metal cheaper and increasing demand. Meanwhile, investor risk aversion tends to increase interest in gold, often regarded as a safe haven.
But at times over the past few sessions the metal has moved in the same direction as equities.
The market awaited U.S. jobless claims and January U.S retail sales data, due for release at 1330 GMT, for further direction on the dollar and gold.
Recent U.S. data, including two straight months of weak jobs growth, have raised questions over whether the world's biggest economy can sustain the strength it showed in the second half of last year and made some investors hope the Fed would take a slower approach to tapering its monthly bond purchases.
"Gold may need a compelling reason to hold onto gains over $1,300 lest profit taking chips away at gains," HSBC said in a note.
Higher gold prices over the past few sessions have curtailed physical buying from China, the world's biggest gold consumer, after trading volumes hit their highest since May at the start of the week.
Premiums for 99.99 percent purity gold fell to $5 on Thursday from $7 in the previous session.
Silver was unchanged at $20.19 an ounce.

Platinum was trading down 0.7 percent at $1,394.00 an ounce, while palladium lost 0.1 percent to $723.75 an ounce.  - Reuters

Copper Drops as China Said to Target Slower Growth in Exports

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            Copper fell in London from a two-week high after a report that the government in China, the biggest consumer of the metal, is aiming for weaker growth in exports this year.
China is targeting export growth of about 7.5 percent in 2014, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said, setting sights lower than last year’s pace. Passenger-vehicle sales in the country rose less than analysts estimated last month, adding to signs that the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing.
“Our focal worry for copper is Chinese growth, which is on a relentless downward slide, and most of the economic data is very discouraging for market participants,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Capital Markets Ltd. in Dublin, said by e-mail today.
Copper for delivery in three months retreated 0.6 percent to $7,113 a metric ton by 9:48 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange after closing yesterday at the highest level since Jan. 24. Copper for delivery in March fell 0.5 percent to $3.239 a pound on the Comex in New York.
Wholesale deliveries of cars, multipurpose vehicles and SUVs came to 1.8 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said, below the 1.88 million-unit median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Economic growth in China will drop to 7.4 percent this year, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
Copper gained yesterday after Chinese trade figures exceeded estimates and data showed imports of unwrought copper and copper products into the nation surged to a record 536,000 tons in January.
“Yesterday’s trade balance was heartening, but we need to see a lot more of this kind of data before we can be poised about Chinese growth,” said Aslam at Ava Capital.
Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME, down 18 percent this year to a 13-month low, fell for a 20th session to 300,675 tons, daily data showed. Orders to remove the metal from warehouses declined 0.8 percent to 175,000 tons.
Aluminum and nickel slid in London. Tin, zinc and lead rose. - Bloomberg

NYMEX crude oil prices fall after U.S. inventory report

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        Nymex crude prices fell on Thursday after a soft U.S. inventory report.
On Wednesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD100.12 a barrel and a high of USD100.36 a barrel to settle at USD100.37 a barrel.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD100.20 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.19%.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD102.95 a barrel, the high from Oct. 16.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 7 compared to expectations for an increase of 2.7 million barrels.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 361.4 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 50,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles declined by 731,000 barrels.
OPEC, meanwhile, said world oil demand should grow at a slightly faster rate than previously expected in 2014. They cartel now sees growth of 1.09 million barrels a day, up from a previous estimate of 1.05 million barrels per day, which bolstered prices.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for April delivery were down 0.05% and trading at 108.27 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at 8.06 a barrel. -

Gold futures fall in Asian trading

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                Gold prices fell during Asian trading hours on Thursday after climbing sharply overnight as investors continued to cheer Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's commitment to tapering stimulus measures.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1,292.70 a troy ounce during Asian trading, down 0.18%.

Stimulus measures such as Fed bond purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates to make stocks more attractive, thus bolstering gold's role as a portfolio hedge.

On Wednesday, the April contact hit a session low of USD1,290.50 and off a high of 1,292.70 and settled up 1.18% at USD1,295.00.
Futures were likely to find support at USD1,265.00 a troy ounce, Monday's low, and resistance at USD1,325.70, the high from Nov. 7.
In prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen suggested that the central bank would taper the pace of its asset purchases at future meetings if the economy continued to improve as expected.
However, Yellen added that the pace of the central bank’s bond purchases are not on a “preset course” and reiterated that the Fed plans to hold interest rates near zero “well past” the time the jobless rate falls below 6.5%.
Also bolstering gold prices were Yellen's observations that "the recovery in the labor market is far from complete" despite progress seen over the last year, describing the country's 6.6% unemployment rate as "well above levels" that Fed officials consider sustainable in a healthy economy.
The Fed is currently purchasing USD65 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month to suppress interest rates to spur recovery, and Yellen's words, while in line with market expectations, kept expectations firm that monetary authorities will trim asset purchases on a gradual basis, while tightening remains far off on the horizon.
Meanwhile, silver for March delivery fell 0.47% and trading at USD20.245 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery were down 0.08% at USD3.252 a pound. -

Natural gas gains on talk winter storm will pummel stockpiles

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               Natural gas futures shot up on Wednesday as a powerful winter storm trekked across the southeastern U.S. and fueled expectations that snow, ice and freezing temperatures are taking their toll on stockpiles as homes and business crank up their heating.

The March contract settled up 5.35% on Tuesday to end at USD4.824 per million British thermal units.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March traded at USD4.932 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, up 2.23%. The commodity hit session high of USD5.027 and a low of USD4.781.
Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD4.564 per million British thermal units, Monday's low, and resistance at USD5.734, the high from Feb. 5.
Investors were betting that a powerful winter storm dumping snow and ice across the southeastern U.S. will prompt thermal power plants to burn more natural gas to meet demand, which should take its toll on the country's inventories.
The U.S. National Weather Service said that the southern part of the U.S. may get 1 to 3 inches (2.5-7.5 centimeters) of snow and sleet over the next three days, while the northeastern U.S. could see wintery weather as the system tracks towards the Atlantic.
Bullish speculators are betting that the winter storm will increase demand for the heating fuel.
The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.
Prices saw support amid speculation weekly supply data due on Thursday will show a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. natural gas inventories due to cold weather.
Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 225 billion cubic feet to 240 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 162 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage fell by 262 billion cubic feet last week to 1.923 trillion cubic feet, approximately 22% below the five-year average for this time of year and nearly 29% below last year’s unusually high level.
Natural-gas inventories have fallen sharply since November as frigid winter temperatures in the U.S. led households to burn a higher than normal amount of the fuel in furnaces to heat their homes.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March were up 0.58% and trading at USD100.52 a barrel, while heating oil for March delivery were down 0.36% and trading at USD3.0172 per gallon. -