Natural gas plunges to 11-week low as mild weather forecasts weigh

            Natural gas futures tumbled to the lowest level since late-August on Monday, as meteorologists predicted milder weather that would limit heating fuel demand.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.440 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, down 2.1%. 

Nymex gas prices tumbled to a session low of USD3.408 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since August 20.

The front-month December contract ended 1.9% lower on Friday to settle at USD3.513 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.386 per million British thermal units, the low from August 18 and resistance at USD3.569, the high from November 1.

Weather-forecasting models continued to point to mild temperatures across most parts of Midwest and Eastern U.S. over the next six-to-ten days.

Bearish speculators are betting on the warm weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 38 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet as last week, 3.1% below last year's unusually high level but 1.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 33 billion cubic feet to 45 billion cubic feet, compared to a 27 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December fell 0.1% to trade at USD94.53 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery dipped 0.55% to trade at USD2.866 per gallon. - Investing.com 

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Gold futures inch higher after Bullard comments

                Gold futures inched higher on Monday, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank does not have to be in a "hurry" to reduce its monthly bond-purchasing program.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,318.10 a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, up 0.4%. 

Prices held in a tight range between USD1,311.00 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of USD1,322.10 a troy ounce. The December contract ended 0.79% lower on Friday to settle at USD1,313.20 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,327.30, the high from November 1.

Uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy continued after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said Monday that the central bank does not need to rush to scale back its USD85-billion-a-month stimulus program because inflation is low.

Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee this year, also said that there had been substantial progress on the labor market.

His comments came after Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said that the central bank should scale back its stimulus measures as soon as possible.

Speaking at a conference in Sydney on Monday, Fisher said that he did not expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to increase or go on indefinitely.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

Gold prices have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the Fed would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery shed 0.1% to trade at USD21.81 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery dropped 1.25% to trade at USD3.257 a pound. - Investing.com 

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Silver futures fall to 12-day low on Fed taper concerns

            Silver prices traded at the lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday, as renewed uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus measures weighed on sentiment.

Prices of the precious metal have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the Fed would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for December delivery traded at USD21.70 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.6%. 

Silver prices fell to a session low of USD21.61 a troy ounce earlier, the weakest level since October 17.

The December contract ended 0.14% lower on Friday to settle at USD21.83 a troy ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at USD21.10 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD22.62, the high from October 31.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said earlier that the Fed should scale back its stimulus measures as soon as possible.

Speaking at a conference in Sydney on Monday, Fisher said a "fiscally irresponsible" U.S. government counteracted the effects of accommodative Fed policy. 

He also added that he did not expect the central bank's USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program to increase or go on indefinitely.

“At the earliest possible moment we need to focus on transitioning back to having an interest-rate-driven monetary policy,” Fisher said.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

Silver traders have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for December delivery inched up 0.1% to trade at USD1,314.50 a troy ounce, while copper for December shed 0.65% to trade at USD3.277 a pound.  - Investing.com

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Crude oil futures fall to 4-1/2-month low on U.S. demand concerns

                   Crude oil futures fell to the lowest level in more than four months on Monday, as ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.72 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, up 0.1%. 

New York-traded oil futures fell to a session low of USD94.09 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 26.

The December contract ended down 1.84% on Friday to settle at USD94.61 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD96.64 a barrel, the high from November 1.

Nymex oil futures lost 3.3% last week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Investors shrugged off a report on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% from a month earlier in September, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery was little changed to trade at USD105.91 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD11.19 a barrel. - investing.com

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Gold Rises as Dollar Drops; Platinum Gains on Supply Woes

                    Gold futures rose as the dollar’s decline boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Platinum climbed on South African supply concerns amid labor turmoil.

The greenback snapped the longest rally since May against a basket of 10 currencies. Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint this year surpassed the total for all of 2012, data on the mint’s website showed on Nov. 1.

“The dollar’s weakness is supporting gold,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “There are some people who are still stocking up on physical gold.”

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4 percent to $1,318.50 at 10:48 a.m. on the Comex inNew York. On Nov. 1, the price touched $1,305.60, the lowest for a most-active contract since Oct. 17.

Through Nov. 1, gold tumbled 22 percent this year, heading for the first annual drop since 2000. Some investors lost faith in the metal amid a rally in U.S. equities and low inflation.

Silver futures for December delivery fell 0.1 percent to $21.825 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, the price touched $21.61, the lowest since Oct. 17.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery increased 0.1 percent to $1,454 an ounce. The price climbed 2.5 percent in October.

South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers began a strike yesterday over wages at Northam Platinum Ltd. The company proposed a meeting tomorrow with workers.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the owner of the world’s largest mine, said today that first-quarter output dropped 17 percent. - bloomberg.com

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Copper Falls a Third Session on Speculation Fed to Slow Stimulus

                          Copper fell for a third session in New York on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of economic stimulus in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal.

Richard Fisher, president of the Fed’s Dallas branch, said today he wouldn’t rule out backing a reduction by March of the central bank’s $85 billion-a-month debt-buying, depending on economic conditions. James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed, said three days earlier an improving labor market might warrant less stimulus.

“The market might be sensitive to one or two Fed official comments on QE tapering from time to time,” Richard Fu, director for Asian commodity trading at Newedge Group SA in London, said in a note today.

Copper for delivery in December slumped 0.6 percent to $3.279 a pound by 7:43 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.6 percent to $7,198 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Fed policy-makers decided last week to maintain the rate of stimulus. The central bank will only start slowing the purchases in March, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed last month. Communist Party leaders in China, the biggest copper user, will enter a policy-making summit this week with services and manufacturing surveys showing a strengthening economy.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell 0.4 percent to 474,675 tons, daily data showed. Inventories in New Orleans, the biggest repository for the metal, gained for a fourth session after 29 straight drops. Orders to take the metal from warehouses fell 1 percent to 285,025 tons.

Tin for delivery in three months fell 0.2 percent to $22,750 a ton on the LME, erasing a climb of as much as 0.6 percent. The metal for immediate delivery traded at a $9.60-a-ton premium to the three-month contract. Backwardation, or prices for earlier deliveries above later contracts, usually indicates limited supplies.

Nickel, lead, zinc and aluminum reached two-week lows in London. - Bloomberg.com

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Crude Oil slightly higher, but still below USD95 per barrel

              Crude Oil futures traded slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session, but crude remained below the psychologically important USD95 per barrel level after being hammered last week. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery inched up 0.02% to USD94.63 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled lower by 1.84% last Friday. 

On the week, U.S. oil futures lost 3.31% on the week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks. 

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD97.00 a barrel, the high from October 31.

Oil was pressured last Friday despite some positive U.S. data. In U.S. economic news out last Friday, the Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0. 

Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Weekly U.S. supply data released earlier in the week showed that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June. 

In global oil news, media reports indicate Israel plans to drill for oil in the West Bank, though there is already speculation regarding how much of the oil there actually belongs to Israel. 

Russia said its oil output averaged 10.59 million barrels per day last month, a record in the post-Soviet era. The country is the world’s largest oil producer. 

Elsewhere, Brent futures for December delivery rose 0.20% to USD106.09 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com

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Gold rises modestly in subdued Asian trade

               Gold futures traded slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session in calm trade as traders are still mulling when the Federal Reserve could taper its quantitative easing program, which would likely wreak havoc on gold prices. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.06% to USD1,314.00 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled down 0.79% at USD,1313.20 per ounce last Friday. 

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.9%, the largest weekly decline in seven weeks. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,359.40, the high from October 30. 

Gold came under some pressure last Friday following some positive U.S. data that encouraged investors to stick with riskier assets. 

In U.S. economic news out last Friday, the Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0. 

The data sparked speculation that the Fed could move to trim its USD85 billion-per-month bond-buying program sooner than some market participants would like to see happen. In recent weeks, markets have become comfortable with the fact the Fed is likely to taper in the latter part of the first quarter of 2014. 

However, the Fed recently reiterated its tapering plans are not tied to the calendar, but rather to the strength of U.S. data, meaning bad economic data is actually good for stocks and gold. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery rose 0.13% to USD21.865 an ounce while copper for December delivery added 0.14% to USD3.304 an ounce. - investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                 Natural gas futures tumbled nearly 2% on Friday to hit a four-week low, as market participants continued to focus on weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December dropped 1.9% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.513 per million British thermal units.

Earlier in the day, Nymex gas prices fell to a session low of USD3.508, the weakest level since October 4. 

The December contract settled down 1.08% on Thursday to end at USD3.581 per million British thermal units. 

Nymex gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.482 per million British thermal units, the low from October 4 and resistance at USD3.660, the high from October 30.

On the week, December natural gas prices plunged 7.03%, the biggest weekly decline in two months.

Weather-forecasting models continued to predict that currently cool temperatures in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. will give way to largely mild temperatures over the next six-to-ten days.

Weather-forecasting models continued to predict that currently cool temperatures in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. will give way to largely mild temperatures over the next six-to-ten days.

Bearish speculators are betting on the warm weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 38 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet as last week, 3.1% below last year's unusually high level but 1.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 33 billion cubic feet to 45 billion cubic feet, compared to a 27 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD94.61 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, dropping 3.31% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery shed 0.85% on the week to settle at USD2.883 per gallon by close of trade Friday. -investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                  New York-traded crude oil futures tumbled below USD95-a-barrel for the first time since late-June on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December dropped 1.84% on Friday to settle the week at USD94.61 a barrel by close of trade. 

Nymex oil prices fell to a session low of USD94.36 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 26.

The December contract settled down 0.4% at USD96.38 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD97.00 a barrel, the high from October 31.

On the week, U.S. oil futures lost 3.31% on the week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks.

The dollar rallied after stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may scale back stimulus measures sooner-than-expected.

The Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. 

The Fed maintained the pace of its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program following its monthly meeting on Wednesday, but kept tapering plans on the table after the central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy.

Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing, sparking speculation the central bank could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at 80.80, the strongest level since September 18.

Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Weekly U.S. supply data released earlier in the week showed that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on fourth-quarter economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil traders now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for December delivery plunged 2.69% on Friday to settle the week at USD105.91 a barrel, the lowest closing price since July 5.

On the week, the London-traded Brent contract lost 0.95%, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD11.30 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

Brent futures were pressured by news that oil production in Libya is increasing.

The North African country’s daily oil output rose to approximately 400,000 barrels a day on Thursday, an improvement of nearly 100,000 barrels from earlier in the week.  - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                  Gold futures ended Friday’s session at a two-week low, after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering stimulus sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery slumped 0.79% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,313.20 a troy ounce. 

Comex gold prices fell to a session low of USD1,305.60 a troy ounce earlier in the day, the weakest level since October 17. 

The December contract tumbled 1.9% on Thursday to settle at USD1,323.70 a troy ounce as investors liquidated their long positions amid uncertainty surrounding the Fed's stimulus program.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,359.40, the high from October 30.

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.9%, the largest weekly decline in seven weeks.

The Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0.

The upbeat data fuelled speculation that the Fed may start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program as soon as next month, after the central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy on Wednesday.

Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing, sparking speculation the central bank could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The U.S. dollar strengthened as traders reassessed their expectations regarding the duration of the Fed’s bond-buying program.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at 80.80, the strongest level since September 18.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold traders now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week ahead to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Gold prices are down approximately 22% this year on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its USD85 billion monthly bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery dipped 0.14% on Friday to settle the week at USD21.83 a troy ounce, the lowest since October 17. Silver prices settled 4.86% lower at USD21.86 on Thursday.

On the week, silver future prices lost 3.53%, reversing two consecutive weekly gains.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery inched down 0.06% on Friday to close the week at USD3.298 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures shed 0.75% to settle at USD3.300 a pound.

Prices of the red metal advanced 0.87% on the week, as upbeat Chinese manufacturing data boosted speculation demand from the world’s largest copper consumer will improve.

Copper traders often use manufacturing numbers as indicators for future copper demand growth, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector. - investing.com

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