Precious Metals Flat While Industrial Metals Ease

                 Gold is kicking off the week flat….. The shiny metal is trading at 1287.10 in the Asian session Monday moving between small gains and losses with no direction. Disappointing US data on Friday had a silver lining, US manufacturing production came in lower than expected but still showed growth and expansion. Against Septembers larger than expected climb, October’s slight miss could be expected. Otherwise there was little guidance and this week’s midmonth calendar will leave investors looking for a reason to trade. 

At the end of last week traders moved to higher risk assets, pushing equities to trade at record highs and leaving the currency and commodity markets bored and lacking. Rising stock markets could curb investors’ interest in the yellow metal even as they weigh how long the US can avoid paring its $85-billion-a-month stimulus program. A majority of analysts now feel that the paring could begin from March. Some clue should be available during mid-week when the US Fed will be releasing the minutes of its October 29-30 meeting while traders try to evaluate the outcome of the December 18^th meeting.

Cutting of bullish bets by money managers and hedge funds, for the third consecutive week, could have a bearish effect on the bullion. Data on eurozone trade, US net capital flows and NHB housing index could provide further cues for gold later in the day.

The impact on global supply and demand in 2013 for gold has been dramatic. Because exchange-traded gold products – legal trusts whose debts are denominated in gold bullion, and which then own physical bullion to back their shares’ value – have flowed from one side of the ledger to the other.

 Adding an average 45 tons to their collective hoard every 3 months as investment flowed in between 2005 and late 2012, the giant SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and its smaller competitor from iShares (IAU) have turned net sellers this year. Together, they’ve sold back some 160 tons per quarter, accounting for two-thirds of 2013′s total gold ETF liquidation of 700 tons. Gold ETF’s have been steadily declining over the past weeks as traders try to decide on future FOMC plans.

Gold is heading for the first annual loss since 2000 as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and global equities climbed 18 percent. Janet Yellen, nominee to replace Ben S. Bernanke as Federal Reserve Chairman, signaled on Nov. 14 that she’d continue the record stimulus program until the U.S. economy is stronger. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent to close at an all-time high on Nov. 15.

Silver has also eased this morning declining to 20.712 down by 15 points but with no conviction. Over the weekend data showed a continued climb in housing prices in China but otherwise there has been little data. Copper remains in the red also down by 5 points at 3.167 way below its average trading above the 3.20 price level. China’s Communist Party signaled a bigger focus on fiscal concerns during President Xi Jinping’s tenure, setting the scene for a clampdown to control the finances of indebted regional authorities weighing on industrial members. The US dollarremains flat having very little effect on commodity prices as the week begins.  - fxempire.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                  Natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Friday to hit a three-week high, as updated weather forecasting models continued to point to colder than average temperatures in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December advanced 1.53% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.660 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices rallied to a session high of USD3.667 earlier, the strongest level since October 29. The December contract settled 1.09% higher on Thursday to end at USD3.605 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.491 per million British thermal units, the low from November 14 and resistance at USD3.683, the high from October 29.

On the week, December natural gas prices rose 2.75%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Updated weather forecasting models called for chilly temperatures across most parts of the eastern half of the U.S. during the next six-to-ten-days.

Forecasts originally called for mild weather during the period.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 20 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with forecasts.

Inventories rose by 12 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 19 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.834 trillion cubic feet as last week, 2% below last year's unusually high level but 1.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage data range from 15 billion cubic feet to 41 billion cubic feet, compared to a 36 billion cubic feet draw during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 2 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 0.8% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery rose 2.48% on the week to settle at USD2.941 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                      New York-traded crude oil futures ended little changed on Friday to cap a sixth consecutive weekly decline amid worries the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December inched up 0.09% on Friday to settle the week at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade. 

The December contract fell to USD92.51 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest since June 4, before ending at USD93.76 a barrel, down 0.13%.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.51 a barrel, the low from November 14 and resistance at USD95.22 a barrel, the high from November 12.

On the week, U.S. oil futures retreated 0.8%, the sixth consecutive weekly decline and the longest losing streak since December 1998.

Concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and the impact on future oil demand prospects mounted after a report released Friday showed that the Federal Reserve’s Empire state manufacturing index fell to -2.21 from 1.52 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 5.0.

Oil traders often use manufacturing numbers as indicators for future fuel demand growth. 

A separate report said that U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, after rising by 0.7% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.

Traders also remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 388.1 million barrels as of last week, the highest since June.

Oil’s losses were limited amid renewed hopes of continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve. 

Testimony from Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested the central bank will continue supporting the U.S. economy with stimulus.

Ms. Yellen said it was "imperative" that the Fed does everything in its power to ensure a robust recovery. She said the quantitative easing program would not continue indefinitely but the timescale for reducing it would be data dependent.

The comments came during a Senate confirmation hearing to take over from Ben Bernanke as head of the central bank in February.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. The U.S. is also to release data on retail sales and consumer prices.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for January delivery rose 0.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD108.50 a barrel.

London-traded Brent prices rallied to USD108.95 a barrel on Thursday, the highest since November 1, amid growing concerns over a disruption to supplies from Libya.

The January Brent contract added 3.11% on the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD14.66 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, the widest since March. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                     Gold futures edged higher on Friday, as renewed hopes of continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve supported the precious metal.

Gold prices have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the Fed would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.09% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,287.40 a troy ounce. 

The December contract rose to USD1,293.80 a troy ounce on Thursday, the highest since November 8, before settling at USD1,286.30, up 1.41%.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,265.00 a troy ounce, the low from November 13 and resistance at USD1,313.30, the high from November 8.

On the week, the precious metal advanced 0.21%, the first weekly gain in three weeks.

Gold prices edged higher after a report showed that the Federal Reserve’s Empire state manufacturing index fell to -2.21 from 1.52 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 5.0.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, after rising by 0.7% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.

The U.S. dollar weakened after the disappointing data dampened expectations that the Fed may start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as next month.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.19% on Friday to settle the week at 80.87.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices rallied sharply on Thursday after testimony from Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested the central bank will continue supporting the U.S. economy with stimulus.

Ms. Yellen said it was "imperative" that the Fed does everything in its power to ensure a robust recovery. She said the quantitative easing program would not continue indefinitely but the timescale for reducing it would be data dependent.

The comments came during a Senate confirmation hearing to take over from Ben Bernanke as head of the central bank in February.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. The U.S. is also to release data on retail sales and consumer prices.

Gold prices are down approximately 24% this year on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its USD85-billion monthly bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery settled 0.02% higher on Friday to close the week at USD20.72 a troy ounce. Silver prices ended up 1.37% at USD20.72 on Thursday. 

Despite Thursday’s gains, silver future prices still lost 2.76% on the week, the third consecutive weekly decline.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery inched up 0.33% on Friday to close the week at USD3.171 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures fell to USD3.142 a pound, the lowest since August 7, before ending up 0.03% USD3.160 a pound.

Comex copper prices declined 2.55% on the week.

Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since August after a top-level Communist Party meeting disappointed investors who were expecting announcements of major economic reforms. 

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - investing.com

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