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14 Nov 2013

Gold could rebound to hit $10,000 an ounce: Nick Barisheff

History also shows that gold has retained its purchasing power compared to any other asset class in history. For eg. a compact car would have cost 66 ounces of gold in 1971, the year President Nixon closed the gold window and 10 ounces of gold in 2012.

                      Gold could rebound to $10,000 an ounce after bottoming out in 2013 if there is a repeat of the 1974-76 phenomenon when gold rose by the same percentage as its 1976 low to 1980 high, according to Nick Barisheff, Founder, President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc (BMG).

Gold is migrating to the East. China has a stated target of 10,000 tonnes of gold, and Fed policies of gold price manipulation and artificially low interest rates will make this goal attainable in the coming years. This is why many feel China will hold the world’s next reserve currency, Nick Barisheff said.

At the recent Toronto Austrian Scholars conference here, Nick Barisheff said that Central banks who are the largest holders of gold but take public posture against owning the metal. The fact is that the gold holdings are only on paper and western central bankers have been involved in the practice of leasing, swapping their gold holdings for decades. Whatever, gold is held in the vaults at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and even in Fort Knox through hypthecation and re-hypothecation, has several claims to ownership.

History also shows that gold has retained its purchasing power compared to any other asset class in history. For eg. a compact car would have cost 66 ounces of gold in 1971, the year President Nixon closed the gold window and 10 ounces of gold in 2012.

Since 1913, gold has lost 96% of its purchasing power when measured against gold.
History shows that global currencies beginning from POrtugal's in 1400's have lasted 100-120 years and subsequently faded out due to governments abusing the privilege and creating too much debt. Spanish currency lasted 110 years, Dutch 80 years, French 95 years, British Pound 105years (1815-1920).

The build-up of massive amounts of debt will result in the end of the U.S. dollar as the world’s de facto reserve currency. This should come as no surprise, Nich Barisheff said.

The U.S. dollar succeeded the British pound, but its peg to gold was broken domestically in 1933, and internationally in 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window. This resulted in unrestricted and exponential debt creation that will likely see the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status end sooner rather than later. The Fed was born in the golden age of industrialism, when fortunes could be made with no income tax consequences. 

The Fed has many reasons for being at war with gold: 1. Gold restricts a country’s ability to create unlimited amounts of fiat currency. 2. The gold held by the Fed and the United States has not been officially audited since 1953; there are several credible indications that this gold has been leased or swapped, and probably has several claims of ownership. Germany’s Bundesbank was told in January 2013 that it would have to wait seven years to repatriate 300 tonnes of its gold currently held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The only plausible explanation for this delay is that the gold is not available. 3. Gold is the only money that exists outside the control of politicians and  bankers. The Fed would like to control all aspects of the global economy, and gold is the last defense of the individual who wishes to protect his or her wealth. - bULLION sTREET

WGC: 3Q Gold Demand Falls Due Exodus From ETFs; Consumer Demand Rises

                 Global gold demand fell by 21% year-on-year in the third quarter to 868.5 metric tons, mainly due to a further exodus out of exchange-traded funds by investors in Western nations, the World Gold Council said Thursday.
However, consumer demand – which includes jewelry, bars and coins – rose 6% to 790.9 tons from 749.2 in the same period a year ago, according to the organization’s quarterly report on supply and demand trends. In fact, year-to-date consumer sales are at a record pace, the WGC said.
Another of the themes in the Gold Council report is the continuing flow of the precious metal from Western to Eastern markets.
“The damage (to overall demand) has been done by the ETFs,” said Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment for the World Gold Council. “But the response has been a big jump in jewelry and bar and coin demand all over the world, even with the restrictions (on gold imports) in India.”
In fact, the WGC pointed out, consumer demand for gold via jewelry, bars and coins for the first nine months of the year hit a record of 2,896.5 tons. This was helped along by lower prices that made gold more affordable for consumers.
“The vast bulk of the year-to-date growth in consumer demand for gold came from Eastern markets; 90% of the 605-ton increase was accounted for by Middle Eastern and Asian consumers, as gold continued to flow from West to East,” the report said.
The move was reflected in various data, the WGC said. Data from Eurostat showed exports of gold from the U.K. to Switzerland for the January-August period grew more than 10-fold to 1,016.3 tons. Meanwhile, other data show that Hong Kong imported 707 tons of gold from Switzerland between
January and September, up from 127 in the comparable period of 2012.
“Although momentum in Eastern markets waned following the exceptional second quarter, year-to-date growth has been remarkable,” the WGC said. “The fact that Q3 demand was well above the third quarter of 2012 is all the more remarkable because of the diminished role played by India.”
India is normally the world‘s largest gold-consuming nation, but authorities there have instituted measures this year aimed at lowering gold imports to fight a growing current-account deficit.
Meanwhile, the organization said central banks continued to add gold to reserves in the third quarter, although at a slower pace.
In value terms, gold demand fell 37% year-on-year to $37 billion, the lowest quarterly value since the first quarter of 2010, the WGC said. Much of this was due to a lower average price than a year ago.
The WGC is a market-development organization for the gold industry. Data for the report is compiled independently by the consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.
ETF Outflows Result In Lower Investment Demand
Overall third-quarter investment demand fell 56% to 185.5 tons, said the WGC. However, the WGC cited a divergence, with ETF holdings falling for the third straight quarter while demand for bars and coins rose.
ETF holdings fell by 118.7 tons, a big reversal from the third quarter of 2012, when they rose by 137.8. However, the trend of outflows “lost considerable momentum” in the third quarter, as the bulk of tactical positions had already been closed during the wave of ETF redemptions in the second quarter, the WGC said. ETF outflows were listed at 402.2 tons in the second quarter and 176.5 in the first.
By the end of September, ETF outflows for 2013 were almost 700 tons, much of this in the second quarter when the price was falling sharply, the WGC said. This in turn was in large part due to speculation by investors that the Federal Reserve would start tapering the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing.
Meanwhile, third-quarter demand for bars and coins was up 6% year-on-year to 304.2 tons, the WGC report showed. For the year through September, demand for bars and coins was 1,252 tons, which was growth of 36%.
While the WGC reported that overall investment demand fell 56%, the organization also said this would be down only 1% year-on-year when inclusive of over-the-counter investment and stock flows, which represents the less visible elements of institutional investment, as-yet unquantifiable stock changes and any statistical residual.
The WGC listed several factors for “sizeable” over-the-counter and stock flows in the third quarter, including a shift in allocated accounts, particularly among Western high-net-worth investors.
“The increase is also a function of the West to East shift we have noted previously,” the WGC said. “A drop in Comex inventories during in the quarter, together with a surge in trade flows to Asia, is indicative of gold bars leaving Western vaults as market participants attempted to take advantage of higher premiums in the Eastern region. Re-stocking of the supply pipeline is also likely to have contributed to the number during the recent quarter, as the sheer scale and speed of demand since Q2 has interfered with the measurement of re-stocking.”
Jewelry Demand Up Year-On-Year
Jewelry demand in the third quarter was 486.7 tons. This was below record volume of 603 in the second quarter but a rise of 5% year-on-year. For the year through September, jewelry demand of 1,644.5 tons was 20% above the corresponding period in 2012.
“Chinese jewelry had a very good quarter, up 29%,” Grubb said. “Interestingly, U.S. jewelry continued its strong run this year. We had a rise of 14% in Q3. That tally is with a better economic picture gradually evolving in the United States.”
Based on value, third-quarter jewelry demand was $20.8 billion, down 15% year-on-year, mainly due to a lower gold price, the WGC said.
“An almost universal phenomenon in the third quarter was the increasing popularity of higher-carat jewelry,” the WGC said. “Across Asia, the
Middle East and in the U.S., higher-carat jewelry was noted as an area of particular growth as the increased investment properties associated with gold of higher purity came to the fore.”
Central Banks Still Net Buyers
Central banks added another 93.4 tons of gold to their reserves in the third quarter. “Although down from last year, it is still a very strong number,” Grubb said. Central-bank purchases were 112.3 tons in the year-ago period and 79.3 tons in the second quarter, the report said.
Year-to-date purchases are nearly 300 tons, the WGC said. Central banks are on target to top the Gold Council’s forecast of 350 tons of purchases in 2013, Grubb added.
Purchases were dominated by central banks within the Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia was the most prominent, added 18 tons during the third quarter, said the report.
Meanwhile, the most recent year for the Central Bank Gold Agreement in Europe ended in September. Sales in the last year were just 5.1 tons, the lowest since the agreements began in 1999, the WGC said.
Gold demand in the technology sector rose a modest 1% year-on-year for the second straight quarter. This was 102.8 tons in the July-September period. - KITCO NEWS

WGC: China Already Tops Record For Full-Year Gold Demand

         Gold demand in China remained robust in the third quarter, with the country already topping its previous full-year record for gold buying, the World Gold Council reported Thursday.
The country was the world’s top consumer in the July-September period and is on pace to replace India as the leading buyer for the full year. Indian demand was also up for the year through September, but was hurt in the third quarter by government efforts to restrict imports in an effort to battle a large current-account deficit.
For the year through September, mainland Chinese gold demand was 797.8 metric tons, reported Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment for the World Gold Council. Demand for full-year 2012 was around 776 tons.
India’s official demand was listed at 715.7 tons through September, compared to around 602 for the first nine months of 2012, Grubb said.
“At the nine-month point (of 2013), China is the largest market in the world,” Grubb said. “As a result, it’s obviously pretty likely they’re going to be No. 1 for the full year as well.”
He commented that one of the factors boosting gold demand in the country is the fact that other assets there have not provided big returns this year.
“The stock market has been very volatile,” Grubb said. “And there have been restrictions on property ownership in China to try and reduce speculation in real estate. That has meant more capital has flowed into gold.”
Further, Grubb said, a slowdown in Chinese economic growth will not harm gold demand the way it would for base metals such as copper, which are used to develop infrastructure.
“It’s actually helping gold demand,” Grubb said. “The logic for that is previously a lot of the growth in China has been driven by exports. Now what is happening is China is moving more to a growth model driven by domestic consumption and spending by households.
“Those households are still getting wealthier…Because more of that growth is internal rather than external, it means there is more money available to buy gold.”
For just the third quarter, total demand for “Greater China” -- including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan – was pegged at 220.1 metric tons, up 19% from 185.7 in the same period a year ago. Jewelry demand rose 28% year-on-year to 172.2 tons. Bar and coin investment dipped 7% to 47.9 tons.
Indian Jewelry, Bar, Coin Demand Fall In Third Quarter
For the third quarter, total gold demand in India fell 32% year-on-year to 148.2 tons from 219.1 a year ago, according to the WGC report. Indian jewelry demand fell 23% to 104.7 tons. Bar and coin demand fell 48% to 43.5 tons.
India has raised import duties on gold so far this year, instituted a ban on the import of gold coins, and also announced a so-called 80:20 rule that stipulates that 20% of all gold imported must be exported before further imports can be made.
In particular, confusion over the 80:20 rule hampered the market, the WGC said. “It effectively stopped importing temporarily into India,” Grubb said.
Also, the Indian rupee depreciated to record lows against the U.S. dollar, driving up the rupee price of gold for Indians.
“Imports, already at a low level in July, all but disappeared in August and September as the market struggled to adapt to the new parameters,” the WGC said. “Gold entering the country unofficially through India’s porous borders helped to meet pent-up demand, together with an influx of recycled gold that was drawn out by higher prices and promotions offered by retailers. Nonetheless, the third quarter was decidedly weak and it is testament to the strength of the first half-year that year-to-date Indian consumer demand is up 19% on 2012.”
As the Indian government tries to clamp down on gold imports, a number of analysts have suggested there has been an increase of gold smuggling into the country. When factoring this in, India may well be a 1,000-ton market this year, Grubb said. There are market estimates that smuggling may be some 50 tons a quarter, meaning potential for another 150 to 200 smuggled tons for the full year, he explained.

There is clearly pent-up demand for gold in the country, he said. He pointed out that there is a premium in Mumbai of over $100 an ounce.
“If you add in the duty, it’s over $250 an ounce,” he said. “So we’re again seeing the highest premiums we’ve ever seen in India at the moment, which basically tells you the demand is very strong but there isn’t enough gold to satisfy the demand.
“The government’s measures have not changed the demand side. They’ve changed the supply side.”
This is reflected data in recycled gold, Grubb added. Recycling was down year-on-year globally in the third quarter, but rose roughly five-fold in India from a year ago.
“Imports (into India) virtually ceased in Q3,” he said. “It meant the premium had to go up and up until you could actually entice Indian consumers to come in and liberate some of their gold for recycling.”
The WGC is a market-development organization for the gold industry. Data for the report is compiled independently by the consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS. - KITCO NEWS

WGC: Global Gold Supply Falls In 3Q On Less Recycling; Mine Output Up

                    The world supply of gold in the third quarter fell by 3% year-on-year to 1,145.5 metric tons as a reduction in recycling activity more than offset a modest increase in mine production, said the World Gold Council Thursday.
For the year to date, the supply of gold was 4% lower than the same period of 2012 at 3,196 tons, the organization said in its quarterly report on trends in the market.
Recycling fell year-on-year for the sixth consecutive quarter, the WGC said. This was down 11% from the year-ago period to 385.2 tons in the third quarter.
For the year to date, recycled gold is down by 13%, or 158 tons, compared to the same period in 2012.
“The contribution from industrialized markets fell by almost 13% as supplies of old gold became increasingly scarce, and lower average prices failed to attract sellers,” the WGC said. “In the U.S., recycling is seemingly in terminal decline, having shrunk significantly in recent quarters. Conditions there are less conducive to recycling as economic indicators improve and gold prices remain below their previous peaks.”
India was the only developing nation to experience an increase in recycling. But then, the WGC pointed out, there is a shortage of fresh supply due to the government’s clampdown on imports as a result of a large current-account deficit. As the rupee weakened, gold also became more expensive in the local currency.
Globally, recycling prospects for the fourth quarter are somewhat price dependent. However, the WGC said, “given the shrinking pool of available supplies of old gold -- particularly in Western markets -- and the improving
economic outlook for the U.S., it is likely there will be a notable decline in the full-year supply of recycled gold from this source.”
Meanwhile, mine production rose 4% year-on-year in the third quarter to 772.3 tons. 
“Mine production continued to recover from the restrained conditions of 2012, a year of labor disruptions, operational issues and delays to project start-ups/expansions,” said the WGC report. “The resumption of growth this year has resulted (in) a year-to-date increase in the supply from mine production of almost 70t.”
The report listed producer de-hedging of 12 tons in the third quarter, reflective of an “almost complete lack of gross new hedging activity.”
Rather than hedging in a lower-price environment, producers focused on cutting costs and improving operational efficiencies, the WGC said. - KITCO

Sumitomo Metal’s Taganito Project Ships First Nickel to Japan

               Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. (5713), Japan’s top nickel producer, said its Taganito nickel project in the Philippines shipped the first shipment to Japan in late October and is heading for full production from January.
The shipment carrying the equivalent of 1,200 metric tons of refined nickel arrived on Nov. 1 at the company’s Niihama refinery in Ehime prefecture in western Japan, company president Yoshiaki Nakazato said today in an investor meeting.
Sumitomo Metal said it will produce 30,000 tons of nickel in 2014 and 36,000 tons in 2016. Indonesia’s proposed ore export ban to promote domestic processing may affect the company’s ferro nickel production at its Hyuga smelter in Miyazaki prefecture in western Japan, which secures 40 percent of its raw material from the Southeast Asian nation, he said.
“If the ban happens, we will try to increase purchases from the Philippines and New Caledonia,” Nakazato said. Indonesia’s scheduled export ban will have an impact on nickel prices in coming months, he said.
Nickel on the London Metal Exchanged has dropped 19 percent this year, the worst performer among six base metals traded on the bourse, and was at $13,820 a ton at 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo.

NYMEX December crude futures down in Asia on U.S. crude stocks outlook

              Crude oil prices weakened in Asia on Thursday as some doubt is cast ahead of a weekly stocks report later in the day from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that is expected to show a drop in stocks to 994 million barrels from 1.577 billion.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD93.71, down 0.19%, in a range of 93.45 - 93.78.

Some traders expect that more refiners than estimated have curbed their crude processing amid seasonal maintenance work and that could bring in the data more bearish than forecast. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, overnight said crude oil stocks rose 600,000 barrels in the week.

The commodity hit a session low of USD92.93 and a high of USD94.51 overnight.

The EIA data comes out a day later than usual because of the Veterans Day holiday on Monday. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.4 million barrels as of last week, the highest since June, according to EIA

Recent jobs and economic growth reports have surprised on the upside in recent days, painting a picture of a more robust U.S. economy, one that will demand more fuel and energy going forward.

Brent crude futures for December on the ICE climbed to USD107.12 a barrel ahead of expiration on Thursday. -