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6 Aug 2014

Gold Holds Below $1,300 as Dollar Strength Assessed With Ukraine


                   Gold held below $1,300 an ounce as U.S. data that beat estimates strengthened the dollar, curbing demand for an alternative investment and countering haven bids from worsening tension between Ukraine and Russia.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,290.22 an ounce at 11:05 a.m. in Singapore from $1,288.78 yesterday, when the metal rose and fell at least 0.4 percent before ending little changed, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The dollar held near a nine-month high against the euro today.
Bullion ended a 12-year rally in 2013 on speculation the Federal Reserve would end monthly bond-buying used to fuel growth. Reports yesterday showed factory and service gains in the world’s largest economy, signaling that the recovery may be strengthening. Gold rebounded 7.2 percent this year, partly as unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East boosted haven demand.
Gold “is caught between an improving U.S. economy and tension in Ukraine,” said Huang Wei, a Shanghai-based analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures Co. “We remain cautious as the Fed maintains its path to end asset purchases.”
Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said yesterday that fellow policy makers are becoming more hawkish. In June, Fed officials forecast they would raise the federal funds rate above zero sometime next year, without specifying a month.
Poland said yesterday a renewed buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border raises the specter of a possible invasion of its neighbor, as President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to prepare a response to U.S. and European sanctions.
Gold for December delivery advanced 0.5 percent to $1,291.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, were unchanged at 800.05 metric tons yesterday.
Silver for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.4 percent to $19.8634 an ounce and traded at $19.8612. Earlier, the metal dropped to $19.74, the lowest level since June 18.
Spot platinum traded at $1,458.50 an ounce from $1,457.44 yesterday, when prices dropped for a second day. Palladium increased 0.3 percent to $848.23 an ounce, halting a four-day losing streak. - Bloomberg

Venezuela Says It Wants $10 Billion for Citgo Oil Assets

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                   Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the Latin American nation’s state-owned crude producer, said the U.S. oil refining and marketing assets it’s seeking to sell are worth more than $10 billion.
“Their value is much, much more,” Rafael Ramirez, president of the oil producer known as PDVSA, told reporters yesterday. The company is receiving offers for assets of Houston-based Citgo Petroleum Corp., he said, without providing details of the value of the bids received.
PDVSA is seeking to sell Citgo assets, the U.S. unit said in a July 29 bond prospectus document. The company owns three refineries capable of handling about 749,000 barrels a day in Louisiana, Texas and Illinois, and sells gasoline through about 6,000 stations.
“We are not a refining company, we’re an oil producing company,” Ramirez said at an event marking 100 years of Venezuelan oil production in the western Zulia state.
Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro is seeking to sell foreign refineries to boost oil exports to China, raise cash and reduce the risk of having assets seized if it loses international lawsuits brought by former oil partners, GlobalSource Partners’ Ruth de Krivoy and Tamara Herrera said July 31 in an e-mailed report to clients.
“Our situation is not like many analysts have said, claiming that we need fiscal revenues,” Ramirez said. “We are doing well with our fiscal revenues from the oil sector.”

Contract Disputes

Contract disputes and expropriations have been filed at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes and the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration by mining and oil companies that operated in the country including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Gold Reserve Inc., Phillips 66 and ConocoPhillips.
“With takeovers of Exxon and ConocoPhillips upgraders, these assets could be potentially taken to satisfy an arbitration ruling against them,”Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates LLC energy consulting firm, said in a phone interview.
Venezuela is Latin America’s biggest oil exporter, shipping 1.8 million barrels a day in 2013, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Maduro has spent revenue from exports on social programs created by predecessor Hugo Chavez and debt repayments, pushing the country’s public sector deficit to 12.3 percent of gross domestic product last year, according to Barclays Plc.
Citgo had sales of $42.3 billion last year and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $1.8 billion, according to the bond prospectus. - Bloomberg

WTI Gains Second Time in Three Days on Stockpiles; Brent Rises

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                 West Texas Intermediate rose for a second time in three days after an industry report showed crude stockpiles declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent climbed in London.
Futures advanced as much as 0.4 percent in New York. Crude supplies shrank by 5.5 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report yesterday. Data from the Energy Information Administration today is projected to show inventories slid by 1.55 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Kurdish oil exports remain unaffected by the turmoil in Iraq, producer Genel Energy Plc said.
“There is a possibility that the market is starting to develop a bit of a range around here,” said Ric Spooner, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney who predicts investors may sell West Texas contracts if prices climb to about $98.70 a barrel. “Iraq looks to be contained for the short term. Markets are prepared to leave the premium at a relative low on a watching brief basis.”
WTI for September delivery rose as much as 34 cents to $97.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $97.62 at 12:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped 0.9 percent to $97.38 yesterday, the lowest price since Feb. 5. The volume of all futures traded was about 33 percent below the 100-day average.
Brent for September settlement climbed as much as 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $105.06 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.36 to WTI. It closed at $7.23 yesterday.

Fuel Supplies

WTI declined 4.1 percent last week amid signs of weaker U.S. fuel demand. Gasoline supplies fell by 3.6 million barrels during the week ended Aug. 1., the API in Washington said, according to Bain Energy. Inventories were probably unchanged at 218.2 million, the survey shows before the EIA report.
Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI and the biggest oil-storage hub in the U.S., increased by 51,000 barrels, the API was said report. The group collects data on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.
The peak driving season in the U.S. typically starts at the end of May and runs through to Labor Day in September.

Mideast Unrest

Genel Energy, the largest producer in Iraqi Kurdistan, is confident that the region’s independent pipeline exports won’t be impeded by the violence and political turmoil engulfing the country. The regional government has loaded five cargoes in Ceyhan, Turkey, and two have been bought and paid for, Chief Financial Officer Julian Metherell said yesterday.
The conflict has spared supply from Iraq’s south, home to more than three-quarters of its crude output. The nation is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ second-largest producer, pumping 3 million barrels a day in July.
In Libya, National Oil Corp. is in talks to resume exports from the Es Sider port, according to Mohamed Elharari, a spokesman for the state-run company. Shipments from the Ras Lanuf terminal will start this week, Elharari said yesterday. The facilities were handed over last month by rebels seeking self-rule in the east of the country, the holder of Africa’s biggest crude reserves. - Bloomberg

Dollar Approaches 9-Month High on Economy, Ukraine; Kiwi Slides


                    The dollar approached the strongest in almost nine months versus the euro as signs the U.S. economy is strengthening and tensions over Ukraine are increasing boosted the appeal of American assets.
A gauge of the greenback climbed toward the highest since February after data yesterday showed factory orders and service activity increased and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said his fellow policy makers were becoming more “hawkish.” Poland said a buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine border raises the specter of a possible invasion. New Zealand’s dollar slid to a two-month low after job growth slowed more than economists forecast and dairy prices fell.
“A strong batch of U.S. data helped the U.S. dollar’s cause,” said Imre Speizer, a markets strategist based in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp. “There was also a good dose of risk aversion last night, and that would’ve helped the U.S. dollar as well.”
The dollar gained 0.1 percent to $1.3368 per euro as of 1:13 p.m. in Tokyo after advancing to $1.3358 yesterday, the strongest since Nov. 11. The U.S. currency was little changed at 102.56 yen. The yen appreciated 0.1 percent to 137.11 per euro.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,023.45 after climbing to 1,024.01 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 13.

Recovery Signs

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index expanded in July at the fastest pace since December 2005, the group said yesterday. Factory orders climbed 1.1 percent in June, almost twice as much as predicted in a Bloomberg News survey, after falling a revised 0.6 percent the previous month, the Census Bureau said.
The Federal Open Market Committee “is coming in my direction,” Fisher said in an interview with Fox Business Network yesterday. The Dallas Fed president said he has a “hawkish slant” on monetary policy.
Fisher is trying to help out the dollar “with his usual hawkish comments,” Emma Lawson, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, wrote today in a client note. “It seems the market may just be swinging around to believe him.”
Traders are willing to pay a premium for one-month options to buy the dollar against all of its 16 major counterparts, 25-delta risk reversals show.

Ukraine Tension

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to prepare a response to U.S. and European sanctions. He has shown no sign of backing down over Ukraine, with Russia massing forces on its neighbor’s border in the biggest military buildup since troops were withdrawn from the area in May.
The dollar has strengthened 1.7 percent in the past month, the best performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen gained 1.2 percent, while the euro fell 0.2 percent.
The kiwi dropped for a second day after Statistics New Zealand said employment increased 0.4 percent in the second quarter, less than the median estimate of 0.7 percent growth among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“Before this report, there was a bias to sell the kiwi dollar,” Westpac’s Speizer said. “This gives the market an excuse to go and do some more.”
The currency also weakened after GlobalDairyTrade said whole milk powder prices tumbled 11.5 percent at auction yesterday to a two-year low. That extended the decline to 46 percent from a peak in February.
The New Zealand dollar declined 0.4 percent to 84.35 U.S. cents after sliding to 84.24 cents, the weakest since June 5. - Bloomberg