Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: November 11 - 15

          Natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Friday, as market participants continued to focus on near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December advanced 1.14% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.559 per million British thermal units.

The December contract rallied to USD3.622 per million British thermal units  on Thursday, the highest since October 31, before settling at USD3.519, up 0.6%. 

Nymex gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.454 per million British thermal units, the low from November 6 and resistance at USD3.658, the high from October 31.

On the week, December natural gas prices rose 1.29%.

Updated weather forecasting models called for chilly temperatures across most parts of the eastern half of the U.S. during the next six-to-ten-days.

Forecasts originally called for mild weather during the period.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 35 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with forecasts.

Inventories rose by 27 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.814 trillion cubic feet as last week, 2.9% below last year's unusually high level but 1.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 16 billion cubic feet to 36 billion cubic feet, compared to a 12 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 19 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD94.60 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, little changed on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery shed 0.52% on the week to settle at USD2.868 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 11 - 15

New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session marginally higher, as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data indicated that the U.S. economy shrugged off the impact of the government shutdown, however gains were limited amid ongoing uncertainty over the duration of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program. 

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December inched up 0.42% on Friday to settle the week at USD94.60 a barrel by close of trade. 

The December contract settled down 0.63% at USD94.20 a barrel on Thursday. 

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.07 a barrel, the low from November 5 and resistance at USD95.40 a barrel, the high from November 6.

On the week, U.S. oil futures were little changed.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 increase forecast by economists. September's figure was revised up to 163,000 from a previously reported 148,000. 

The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% from an almost five-year low of 7.2% the previous month.

The report came one day after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, well above expectations for growth of 2%.

The robust data eased concerns over a slowdown in demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid worries the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth and eroded demand.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.4 million barrels as of last week, the highest since June.

Crude’s gains were limited as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as next month.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.48% on Friday to settle the week at 81.29, the strongest level since September 13.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Thursday’s Senate hearing to confirm Janet Yellen as the first chairwoman of the Federal Reserve. 

Meanwhile, the euro zone and Japan are to release preliminary data on third quarter growth

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for December delivery rallied 1.6% on Friday to settle the week at USD105.12 a barrel.

Brent prices rallied after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that there are “some important gaps” in reaching a resolution that would ease sanctions against Iran’s oil exports in exchange for concessions on its nuclear work. 

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than one million barrels per day of oil from the global market.

Despite Friday’s strong gains, the London-traded Brent contract lost 0.74% on the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD10.52 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: November 11 - 15

             Gold futures ended Friday’s session at a three-week low, after stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering stimulus sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery tumbled 1.83% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,284.60 a troy ounce. 

Comex gold prices fell to a session low of USD1,280.50 a troy ounce earlier in the day, the weakest level since October 17. The December contract fell 0.71% on Thursday to settle at USD1,308.50 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,325.70, the high from November 7.

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.17%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 increase forecast by economists. September's figure was revised up to 163,000 from a previously reported 148,000. 

The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% from an almost five year low of 7.2% the previous month.

The report came one day after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, well above expectations for growth of 2%.

The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board after the robust data raised the possibility that the Fed may start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as next month.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.48% on Friday to settle the week at 81.29, the strongest level since September 13.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices are down approximately 24% this year on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its USD85-billion monthly bond purchases.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Thursday’s Senate hearing to confirm Janet Yellen as the first chairwoman of the Federal Reserve.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery dropped 1.57% on Friday to settle the week at USD21.31 a troy ounce. Comex silver fell to a session low of USD21.25 a troy ounce earlier in the day, the lowest since October 15. 

Silver prices settled 0.51% lower at USD21.65 on Thursday. On the week, silver future prices lost 2.38%, the second consecutive decline.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery inched up 0.17% on Friday to close the week at USD3.254 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures added 0.36% to settle at USD3.248 a pound.

Despite Friday’s modest gains, copper prices still fell 1.33% on the week, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its stimulus program sooner-than-expected.

Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese industrial output rose more-than-forecast in October, while consumer price inflation inched up modestly.

Industrial production in China rose 10.3% last month, beating expectations for a 10.0% increase, while CPI inched up to 3.2% from 3.1% in September, missing estimates for 3.3% inflation. 

Chinese trade data released Friday showed that both imports and exports rose in October, easing concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy and biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - investing.com

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