Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

                U.S. crude oil futures settled near six-week highs on Thursday as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin prices, while upbeat U.S. economic data bolstered the demand outlook.

Nymex oil futures ended the holiday shortened week with gains of 1.06%.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for delivery in May ended Thursday’s session at $104.58 a barrel, not far from the peaks of $104.97 reached in the previous session. Trading on the NYMEX was closed for Good Friday.

Oil futures moved higher after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region strengthened more than forecast in April.

Crude prices were also supported as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine fanned fears over possible supply disruptions from Russia, the world largest energy exporter.

Concerns over the crisis in eastern Ukraine eased somewhat on Thursday after Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union said an agreement on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis had been reached.

Heightened geopolitical risk overshadowed a report on Wednesday showing a far larger than expected increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 10.01 million barrels in the week ended April 11. It was the largest inventory build since March 2001. Analysts had expected an injection of 2.25 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 394.1 million barrels, the most since June.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 1.66 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 1.27 million barrels.

The May Brent oil contract ended Thursday’s session $109.69 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and ended the week with gains of 0.73%.

The spread between the Brent and the Nymex crude contracts stood at $5.11 a barrel by close of trade, compared to $4.00 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

           Gold prices ended the week sharply lower on Thursday, falling below the $1,300 level as indications that the U.S. economic recovery is progressing dampened safe haven demand for the precious metal.

Gold came under pressure after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery ended Thursday’s session at $1,294.90 an ounce. The precious metal ended the week down 2.34%. The Comex was closed for Good Friday.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region strengthened more than forecast in April.

Meanwhile, concerns over the crisis in eastern Ukraine eased on Thursday after Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union said an agreement on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis had been reached.

Gold, seen as a safe haven investment, usually benefits from economic and geopolitical turmoil.

Concerns over weakening demand from top buyer China also weighed on gold prices.

Prices for the precious metal posted the largest one day decline since December 19 on Tuesday after the World Gold Council said that Chinese gold demand is likely to remain flat this year, as a result of the country's economic slowdown and constrained credit markets.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery rose 0.2% to $19.64 a troy ounce on the Comex, trimming the week’s losses to 1.59%.

Copper futures for May delivery edged up to $3.049 a pound at the close on Thursday, to end the holiday shortened week with gains of 0.24%. - investing.com

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Gold, silver inch lower ahead of ECB meeting, U.S. data

             Gold and silver prices weakened in cautious trade on Thursday, as investors stuck to the sidelines ahead of a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later in the day as well as the release of key U.S. economic data.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor June delivery held in a tight range between $1,285.80 a troy ounce and $1,294.20 an ounce.

Gold last traded at $1,287.50 an ounce during European morning hours, down 0.26%, or $3.40. Futures rallied 0.84%, or $10.80 an ounce, on Wednesday to settle at $1,290.80.

Gold futures were likely to find support at $1,277.40 a troy ounce, the low from April 1 and resistance at $1,299.30, the high from March 31.

Meanwhile, silver for May delivery lost 0.83%, or 16.7 cents, to trade at $19.88 a troy ounce. Silver ended Wednesday’s session up 1.84%, or 36.2 cents, to settle at $20.05 an ounce.

Silver futures were likely to find support at $19.63 an ounce, the low from April 1 and resistance at $20.14, the high from April 2.

Recent weak euro zone inflation data has added to pressure on the ECB to take steps to stave off the risk of deflation.

However, most investors expected the ECB to leave monetary policy on hold, after Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said over the weekend that the region is not in a deflationary cycle, and that the recent slowdown in inflation was due in large part to temporary factors, such as falls in food and energy prices.

Market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

On Wednesday, payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 191,000 in March, adding to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.

Gold and silver have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as upbeat U.S. economic data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper for May delivery slumped 0.57%, or 1.7 cents, to trade at $3.028 a pound after China unveiled a mini-stimulus package, disappointing market expectations for more drastic measures.

China's State Council said Wednesday that it will increase spending on railways and housing, as policymakers attempt to boost slowing growth in Asia’s largest economy.

However, the announcement disappointed market participants, who had expected more stimulus in the form of looser monetary policy, such as a cut in bank reserve requirements.

Mixed data on China’s services sector also weighed. HSBC’s China services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.9 last month from 51.0 in February, but the official nonmanufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in March from 55.0 in the previous month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - investing.com

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Copper declines as China mini-stimulus package disappoints

Copper prices declined on Thursday, after China unveiled a mini-stimulus package, disappointing market expectations for more drastic measures.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,copper for May delivery traded at $3.025 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.67%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper fell to a session low of $3.015 a pound earlier, the least since March 28. Futures tacked on 0.36%, or 1.1 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $3.045 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.990 a pound, the low from March 28 and resistance at $3.074 a pound, the high from April 2.

China's State Council said Wednesday that it will increase spending on railways and housing, as policymakers attempt to boost slowing growth in Asia’s largest economy.

However, the announcement disappointed market participants, who had expected more stimulus in the form of looser monetary policy, such as a cut in bank reserve requirements.

Mixed data on China’s services sector also weighed. HSBC’s China services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.9 last month from 51.0 in February, but the official nonmanufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in March from 55.0 in the previous month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery shed 0.35%, or $4.50, to trade at $1,286.30 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery lost 0.96%, or 19.2 cents, to trade at $19.85 an ounce.

Gold and silver prices weakened ahead of the release of upcoming U.S. economic data and a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later in the day.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

Traders will also be awaiting the outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting later Thursday, amid growing concerns over the threat of deflation in the region. - investing.com

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WTI oil futures decline with ECB meeting, U.S. jobs data in focus

                  West Texas Intermediate oil futures edged lower on Thursday, as markets were jittery ahead of the European Central Bank's monthly policy statement later in the day as well as Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude for delivery in May held in a range between $99.18 a barrel and $99.48 a barrel.

Nymex oil last traded at $99.41 a barrel during European morning hours, down 0.22%, or 21 cents. The May contract fell to $98.86 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since March 25, before settling at $99.62, down 0.12%, or 12 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $98.82 a barrel, the low from March 25 and resistance at $101.57 a barrel, the high from April 1.

Recent weak euro zone inflation data has added to pressure on the ECB to take steps to stave off the risk of deflation.

However, most investors expected the ECB to leave monetary policy on hold, after Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said over the weekend that the region is not in a deflationary cycle, and that the recent slowdown in inflation was due in large part to temporary factors, such as falls in food and energy prices.

Market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

On Wednesday, payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 191,000 in March, adding to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery eased down 0.05%, or 5 cents, to trade at $104.74 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at $5.33 a barrel.

London-traded Brent futures fell to a five-month low of $103.95 a barrel on Wednesday, amid expectations oil exports from Libya will begin picking up in the near-term. - investing.com

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