Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                  Natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Friday to hit a three-week high, as updated weather forecasting models continued to point to colder than average temperatures in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December advanced 1.53% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.660 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices rallied to a session high of USD3.667 earlier, the strongest level since October 29. The December contract settled 1.09% higher on Thursday to end at USD3.605 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.491 per million British thermal units, the low from November 14 and resistance at USD3.683, the high from October 29.

On the week, December natural gas prices rose 2.75%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Updated weather forecasting models called for chilly temperatures across most parts of the eastern half of the U.S. during the next six-to-ten-days.

Forecasts originally called for mild weather during the period.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 20 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with forecasts.

Inventories rose by 12 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 19 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.834 trillion cubic feet as last week, 2% below last year's unusually high level but 1.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage data range from 15 billion cubic feet to 41 billion cubic feet, compared to a 36 billion cubic feet draw during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 2 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 0.8% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery rose 2.48% on the week to settle at USD2.941 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com