Oil falls on Fed headlines, hedge fund rumors

Oil futures extended losses seen in U.S. trade Wednesday during Thursday’s Asian session as traders digested a couple of points of market speculation, neither of which is seen as healthy for oil’s near-term outlook. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for April delivery fell 0.52% to USD94.72 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday after losing 2.32% to settle at at USD94.85 a barrel in Wednesday’s U.S. session. That was good for oil’s biggest one-day drop this year. Oil and other dollar-denominated commodities were hit with a wave of selling after Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes indicated the Federal Reserve may begin winding down or even cease its asset-buying programs. The Fed’s various easing endeavors have helped lift commodities prices, particularly gold and oil, over the past few years, but monetary easing has also punished the dollar. With some traders seeing an end to quantitative easing in sight, the trade appears to be dump commodities and run to the greenback. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels last week. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined by 122,000 barrels and 1.6 million barrels, respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly inventory report later today. Traders also appeared to respond to rumors that a large hedge fund or a group of them had liquidated significant positions in oil and other commodities on Wednesday. Other speculation that crept into the market was the theory that Saudi Arabia, which has recently been paring oil production, may boost output during the second quarter to prevent prices from rising too rapidly. The kingdom is the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Elsewhere, Brent crude for April delivery fell 0.08% to USD114.97 per barrel.

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Gold keeps falling following Fed minutes

Gold futures, already hovering at their lowest levels since July, continued falling during Thursday’s Asian session following the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting released during Wednesday’s U.S. session. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery slipped 0.68% to USD1,567.30 per troy ounce in Asian trading Thursday. Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,562.45 a troy ounce, the from July 23, 2012, and resistance at USD1,618.70, Monday's high. Gold was following in advance of the FOMC minutes and plummeted after the minutes showed the Fed may start easing or outright halt its bond-buying activities before originally planned. While there is no guarantee that will happen in the near-term,

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Natural Gas edges up amid forecasts for cooler temps, eyes supplies

Natural gas futures extended Tuesday's gains into Wednesday, as weather forecasting services continued to issue calls for colder-than-normal temperatures to return for much of the nation. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March traded at USD3.280 per million British thermal units, up 0.26%. The commodity hit a session low of USD3.259 and a high of USD3.313. Weather forecasting services originally calling for seasonable temperatures began to forecast cooler-than-normal thermometer readings for much of the U.S., which sparked a rally in natural gas markets on Tuesday, with prices shooting up 3.8%. Industry weather group MDA Federal said it expected a "chilly, unsettled pattern" with below-normal temperatures settling in for much of the nation in its one to five-day outlook. Natural gas futures are very sensitive to weather reports in the U.S. winter. The U.S. heating season, which runs from November through March, sees peak demand for gas. About half of U.S. households use gas for heating purposes, according to Energy Department data. Market participants, meanwhile, looked ahead to a U.S. government report on natural gas supplies due for release on Thursday. Early withdrawal estimates range from 118 billion cubic feet to 154 billion cubic feet. Inventories fell by 155 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 140 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.527 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 16% above the five-year average for this time of year. If withdrawals for the rest of winter season match the five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season at 2.076 trillion cubic feet, nearly 20% above normal, but 16% below last year's end-winter record of 2.48 trillion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in April were down 1.97% and trading at USD95.19 a barrel, while heating oil for March delivery were down 0.93% and trading at USD3.1509 per gallon.

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21-FEB-2013 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR MCX COMMODITY MARKET

21-FEB-2013	RESISTANCE LEVELS	SUPPORT LEVELS

COMMODITY	RES-1	RES-2	RES-3	SUP-1	SUP-2	SUP-3
ALUMINIUM	113.30	114.50	115.50	111.10	110.10	108.90
COPPER	436.65	441.05	443.55	429.75	427.25	422.85
CRUDEOIL	5258	5352	5415	5101	5038	4944
GOLD	29911	30243	30446	29376	29173	28841
LEAD	128.20	129.55	130.30	126.10	125.35	123.95
NATURALGAS	179.90	181.20	182.90	176.90	175.25	173.85
NICKEL	941.10	958.80	970.10	912.10	900.80	883.10
SILVER	54910	56100	56922	52898	52076	50886
ZINC	115.75	116.65	117.25	114.25	113.65	112.75

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