11 Nov 2013

Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 11 - 15

New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session marginally higher, as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data indicated that the U.S. economy shrugged off the impact of the government shutdown, however gains were limited amid ongoing uncertainty over the duration of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program. 

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December inched up 0.42% on Friday to settle the week at USD94.60 a barrel by close of trade. 

The December contract settled down 0.63% at USD94.20 a barrel on Thursday. 

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.07 a barrel, the low from November 5 and resistance at USD95.40 a barrel, the high from November 6.

On the week, U.S. oil futures were little changed.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 increase forecast by economists. September's figure was revised up to 163,000 from a previously reported 148,000. 

The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% from an almost five-year low of 7.2% the previous month.

The report came one day after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, well above expectations for growth of 2%.

The robust data eased concerns over a slowdown in demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid worries the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth and eroded demand.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.4 million barrels as of last week, the highest since June.

Crude’s gains were limited as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as next month.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.48% on Friday to settle the week at 81.29, the strongest level since September 13.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Thursday’s Senate hearing to confirm Janet Yellen as the first chairwoman of the Federal Reserve. 

Meanwhile, the euro zone and Japan are to release preliminary data on third quarter growth

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for December delivery rallied 1.6% on Friday to settle the week at USD105.12 a barrel.

Brent prices rallied after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that there are “some important gaps” in reaching a resolution that would ease sanctions against Iran’s oil exports in exchange for concessions on its nuclear work. 

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than one million barrels per day of oil from the global market.

Despite Friday’s strong gains, the London-traded Brent contract lost 0.74% on the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD10.52 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. - investing.com

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