Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                  New York-traded crude oil futures tumbled below USD95-a-barrel for the first time since late-June on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December dropped 1.84% on Friday to settle the week at USD94.61 a barrel by close of trade. 

Nymex oil prices fell to a session low of USD94.36 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 26.

The December contract settled down 0.4% at USD96.38 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD97.00 a barrel, the high from October 31.

On the week, U.S. oil futures lost 3.31% on the week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks.

The dollar rallied after stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may scale back stimulus measures sooner-than-expected.

The Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. 

The Fed maintained the pace of its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program following its monthly meeting on Wednesday, but kept tapering plans on the table after the central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy.

Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing, sparking speculation the central bank could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at 80.80, the strongest level since September 18.

Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Weekly U.S. supply data released earlier in the week showed that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on fourth-quarter economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil traders now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for December delivery plunged 2.69% on Friday to settle the week at USD105.91 a barrel, the lowest closing price since July 5.

On the week, the London-traded Brent contract lost 0.95%, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD11.30 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

Brent futures were pressured by news that oil production in Libya is increasing.

The North African country’s daily oil output rose to approximately 400,000 barrels a day on Thursday, an improvement of nearly 100,000 barrels from earlier in the week.  - investing.com