Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: July 29 - August 2

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                             New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session at a two-and-a-half week low, as markets were jittery ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting amid ongoing uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in September dropped 0.82% Friday to settle the week at USD104.63 a barrel by close of trade.

On the week, Nymex oil futures fell 3.24%. 

The release of mixed U.S. data on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders on Thursday fuelled fresh uncertainty over whether the Fed will start to scale back its bond buying program later this year. 

The Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 6,000 to 340,000.

Separately, the Commerce Department said orders for long lasting manufactured goods rose by a seasonally adjusted 4.2% in June, compared to expectations for an increase of 1.3%. 

Durable goods for May were revised to a 5.2% gain from a previously reported 3.7% increase.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, were flat in June, compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase. 

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar. 

Markets were also jittery after data earlier in the week showed that the preliminary reading of China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to an 11-month low of 47.7 in July, from a final reading of 48.2 last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6. 

China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the U.S. 

Crude Oil prices found some support however, after the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday said U.S. oil inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels, well below the 2.6 million barrel decline forecast by analysts. 

Recent oil inventory reports have shown that demand has been on the rise in the U.S. in the past few months. 

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on gross domestic product and manufacturing activity to further gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. In addition, traders will be eyeing the Fed's monthly policy statement for indications on the future of the central bank's bond-buying program.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand. 

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for September delivery slipped 0.01% on Friday to settle the week at USD107.11 a barrel.

The London-traded Brent contract lost 1.22% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD2.48 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - Weekly Outlook: July 29 - August 2

                 

                   
                          Gold futures ended Friday’s session lower, as investors locked in gains following a recent rally as mixed U.S. economic reports eased investors' concerns over a possible near-term end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would end its quantitative easing program sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery dropped 0.55% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,321.50 a troy ounce. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,295.45 a troy ounce, the low from July 21 and resistance at USD1,375.85, the high from June 19.

On the week, gold prices added 0.69%. 

Comex gold prices rose to an almost five-week high of USD1,347.85 a troy ounce on Tuesday, a day after a weaker-than-expected report on U.S. home sales fueled market talk that the Federal Reserve will keep stimulus measures in place for now. 

The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that existing home sales fell 1.2% to 5.08 million units in June, missing market calls for sales to rise 0.6% to 5.25 million units in June.

Sales for May were revised down to 5.14 million from a previously reported 5.18 million. 

The report added sales were up 15.2% from June of last year, while average house prices jumped 13.5% on a year-over-year basis.

While the numbers indicated that recovery continues in the housing sector, markets concluded the figures were soft enough to sway monetary authorities to keep stimulus programs in place for now.

Fed officials have said they will pay close attention to economic data when deciding when to taper and eventually close stimulus programs.

An exit from the stimulus would deal a heavy blow to gold, which has thrived on demand from investors who buy gold to hedge against the inflationary risks of loose monetary policies. 

In the week ahead, the Fed is to release its monthly monetary policy statement, which will be closely watched for indications on the future of the central bank's stimulus program.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery dropped 0.91% on Friday to settle the week at USD19.97 a troy ounce. Despite Friday's losses, silver future prices gained 0.78% on the week.

Meanwhile, copper for September delivery tumbled 2.54% on Friday to close the week at USD3.105 a pound. 

The red metal lost ground as traders cashed out of the market to lock in gains following Monday’s strong rally that took prices to a five-week high .

Losses were limited however, amid hopes policy makers in China will introduce fresh easing measures to boost growth in the world’s second largest economy and largest consumer of the industrial metal.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Comex copper prices declined 1.86% on the week.  - investing.com

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Crude oil lower ahead of U.S. consumer sentiment report

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                               Crude oil futures were lower on Friday, as uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program continued to dominated markets, ahead of U.S. consumer sentiment data to be released later in the day. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at USD105.00 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.47%. 

The release of mixed U.S. data on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders on Thursday fuelled fresh uncertainty over whether the Fed will start to scale back its bond buying program later this year. 

The Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 6,000 to 340,000.

The Commerce Department said orders for long lasting manufactured goods rose by a seasonally adjusted 4.2% in June, compared to expectations for an increase of 1.3%, while vore durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, were flat in June, compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase. 

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand. 

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for September delivery slid 0.30% to trade at USD107.32 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD2.32 a barrel. - investing.com

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Gold builds on U.S. gains in Asia

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                                                 Gold futures traded higher in the early part of Friday’s Asian session, building on gains accrued in Thursday’s U.S. session thanks to some weak jobs data. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery rose 0.35% to USD1,333.45 per troy ounce in Asian trading Friday after settling up 0.67% at USD1,328.35 per ounce in U.S. trade Thursday. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,269.45 a troy ounce, the low from July 17, and resistance at USD1,347.85, Tuesday's high. 

In U.S. economic news out Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 7,000 to 343,000 last week. Economists expected a reading of 340,000 new claims. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits dropped to 2.3 percent in the week ended July 13 from 2.4 percent the prior week, according to Bloomberg. 

Durable goods orders jumped 4.2% in June after a revised 5.2% increase in May. Analysts expected an increase of just 1.4%. 

Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, were flat in June, missing expectations for a 0.5% increase, which supported gold prices. 

Tepid U.S. data has proven helpful to gold because it helps alleviate concerns that the Federal Reserve will act quickly to begin tapering its USD85 billion-per-month quantitative easing program. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for September delivery rose 0.38% to USD20.230 per ounce while copper for September delivery fell 0.16% to USD3.185 an ounce. - investing.com

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Gold rebounds in Asia after small U.S. loss

                    
                             Gold futures resumed their recently renewed bullish ways in the early part of Wednesday’s Asian session after enduring a modest loss Tuesday in the U.S. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery jumped 0.60% to USD1,342.75 per troy ounce in Asian trading Wednesday after settling down 0.04% at USD1,335.45 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Tuesday. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,269.45 a troy ounce, Wednesday's low, and resistance at USD1,338.45, Monday's. 

Gold prices have soared since crossing the psychologically important USD1,300 an ounce level, though bullion is still saddled with a year-to-date loss. Gold prices soared on Monday after the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 1.2% to 5.08 million units in June, missing market calls for sales to rise 0.6% to 5.25 million units in June. Sales for May were revised down to 5.14 million from a previously reported 5.18 million. 

Gold and other precious metals have also been boosted by news that the Federal Reserve plans to keep its accommodating monetary policy in place for the foreseeable future. Bullion in its worst quarterly performance in multiple decades in the second quarter on fears that the Fed was close to tapering its USD85 billion quantitative easing program. 

Federal Reserve officials have said they will pay close attention to economic data when deciding when to taper and eventually close stimulus programs, though they have added they won't follow specific timetables. 

Since June 26, the SPDR Gold Shares, the largest ETF backed by physical gold, has gained more than 8%, outperforming the S&P 500 in the process. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for September delivery fell 0.20% to USD20.405 per ounce while copper for September delivery dropped 0.44% to USD3.199 per ounce. - Investing.com

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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: July 22 - 26

Natural gas futures edged lower on Friday, as some investors cashed out of the market to lock in gains from the previous session’s 5% rally that took prices to a four-week high.

Updated weather forecasts showing that a heat wave in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest was expected to give way to below-normal temperatures this week also weighed.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in August fell 1.1% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.771 per million British thermal units.

Despite Friday’s downbeat performance, natural gas prices rose 3.45% on the week, the third consecutive weekly advance.

Nymex gas futures surged 5.1% on Thursday to hit a four-week high of USD3.814 per million British thermal units, following the release of bullish U.S. supply data.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 58 billion cubic feet last week, below market expectations for an increase of 64 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 29 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 70 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.745 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 1.2% below the five-year average and 13% below last year's level.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 45 billion cubic feet to 60 billion cubic feet, compared to a 26 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 53 billion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, market players continued to focus on near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

Updated weather forecasting models released Friday pointed to milder weather temperatures across most parts of the U.S. Northeast and Midwest for the rest of July.

The U.S. National Weather Service pointed to below-normal temperatures covering the heavily populated Northeast and Midwest regions over the next six to 14 days.

Mild summer temperatures reduce the need for gas-fired electricity to cool homes.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery settled at USD108.23 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, adding 2.1% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for August delivery tacked on 2% over the week to settle at USD3.095 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: July 22 - 26

                    New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session at the highest level since March 2012, amid indications of improving demand from the U.S. and after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the central bank will maintain its easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude Oil futures for delivery in September rose 0.4% Friday to settle the week at USD108.23 a barrel by close of trade.

Earlier in the day, New York-traded oil prices rose to a session high of USD108.92 a barrel, the strongest level since March 3, 2012. 

On the week, Nymex oil futures advanced 2.1%, the fourth consecutive weekly gain. The U.S. benchmark has rallied nearly 14% over the past four weeks.

Appetite for riskier assets improved after Bernanke said in testimony to Congress that there was no set timeline for the central bank to withdraw its stimulus measures. 

Bernanke said the central bank could scale back its asset purchases by the end of the year if the economy continues to improve, but added that there was no “preset course.”

The Fed Chairman added that the economic recovery was continuing at a moderate pace and that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Oil prices were also supported after Wednesday’s bullish U.S. inventory report showed that crude oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels last week, compared to expectations for a decline of 2 million barrels. 

Crude supplies in the U.S. are down 27.1 million barrels in three weeks ended July 12, the most in weekly statistics dating back to 1982.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on the housing sector and manufacturing to further gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand. 

Market players will also be looking ahead to Wednesday’s data on Chinese manufacturing activity, amid ongoing concerns over the country’s economic outlook.

China’s central bank said on Friday it was removing the lower limit on interest rates for banks, to help lenders attract more borrowers and spur economic activity.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for September delivery shed 0.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD108.48 a barrel.

The London-traded Brent contract lost 0.3% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD0.25 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

Earlier in the session, U.S. crude for September delivery reached a USD0.05 premium over Brent for the first time since October 2010. As recently as February of this year, London-traded Brent was at a USD23 premium over U.S. crude.

The gap between the contracts has been on a downward trend in recent months, amid an improving production outlook in the North Sea and indications of declining stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil futures.

Stocks at Cushing have fallen to 46 million barrels from 52 million in January. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - Weekly outlook: July 22 - 26

                 Gold futures ended Friday’s session just below a one-month high, after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier in the week eased concerns over the possibility the central bank will begin to taper its bond-buying program in the near future.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would end its quantitative easing program sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery rose 0.8% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,295.05 a troy ounce. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,242.35 a troy ounce, the low from July 10 and near-term resistance at USD1,301.75, the high from June 21.

On the week, gold prices advanced 0.85%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Comex gold prices rose to a one-month high of USD1,299.45 a troy ounce on Wednesday after Bernanke said the pace of the central bank’s bond purchases are not a “preset course”.

In the first day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Bernanke reiterated that the Fed will continue to maintain its accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

He added that the central bank may taper its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program later this year and halt it around mid-2014.

Bernanke said the pace of purchases could be maintained longer if conditions are less favorable.

The precious metal is on track to post a loss of 23% on the year amid concerns the Fed will start to unwind its stimulus program by the year's end.

An exit from the stimulus would deal a heavy blow to gold, which has thrived on demand from investors who buy gold to hedge against the inflationary risks of loose monetary policies. 

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on the housing sector and manufacturing to further gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Any improvement in U.S. economic activity could scale back expectations for further easing, boosting the dollar and weighing on gold.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery eased up 0.4% on Friday to settle the week at USD19.46 a troy ounce. Despite Friday’s modest gains, silver future prices lost 2.15% on the week.

Meanwhile, copper for September delivery rose 0.5% on Friday to close the week at USD3.146 a pound. 

The red metal found support on Friday after China’s central bank said it was removing the lower limit on interest rates for banks, to help banks attract more borrowers.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Despite Friday’s upbeat performance, Comex copper prices shed 0.25% on the week.

Copper traders will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s data on Chinese manufacturing activity, amid ongoing concerns over the country’s economic outlook. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures slip lower on profit-taking

      Crude oil futures slipped lower on Friday, as investors locked in gains after oil prices rallied on Thursday following the release of upbeat U.S. jobless and supply data. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at USD107.72 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.09%. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 24,000 to 334,000, compared to expectations for a drop of 13,000 to 345,000, which sent the dollar rising. 

In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels last week, compared to expectations for a decline of 2 million barrels. 

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand. 

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative, even as the central bank starts to pare back its bond buying. 

He was speaking in his second day of testimony on monetary policy before the Financial Services Committee in Congress. 

On Wednesday, Bernanke said the central bank expects to start tapering bond purchases by the end of the year, but added that there was no “preset course.”

He added that the bank’s bond purchase program could be tapered at a faster pace, slower pace or even temporarily increased depending on economic and financial developments. 

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for September delivery dipped 0.01% to trade at USD108.68 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD0.96 a barrel.  - Investing.com

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