EIA Inventory Influencing Crude OIl & Natural Gas Prices

                       Crude oil is trading at 104.00 this morning surging on Wednesday evening after the release of the official EIA inventory. WTI oil prices gained by more than 1.5 percent in yesterday’s trading session and touched a one month high after the EIA report released last night showed large draw in commercial crude stocks, while renewed fighting in Libya that kept output low boosted Brent prices. Explosions and fighting were heard in Tripoli on Wednesday, two days after gunmen stormed parliament amid a surge in violence in the OPEC member country. National output in Libya edged higher to 230,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from 210,000 bpd on Monday but still a fraction of the 1.6 million bpd the country produced before the 2011 war. Two large oilfields were still shut 10 days after the government said protests there were over.

 The EIA released its weekly inventories report showing US crude oil inventories declined by 7.3 million barrels for the week ending on 16^th May 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by nearly 1 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels for the same time period. Demand for crude, particularly gasoline usually increases during the month of June-Sep as US moves along its summer driving season which starts officially on the last Monday on May month. While refinery rates were little changed last week, traders feel as we near the summer season, consumption for gasoline would increase while refinery run rates too would rise.

Crude oil reached a one-month high on Wednesday, after the government reported a large draw in commercial crude stocks, while renewed fighting in Libya that kept output low boosted Brent prices. Brent oil rose 9 cents this morning to trade at 110.56. Libya’s major western oilfields remain closed 10 days after the government said protesters blocking pipeline flows had agreed to leave, while total oil output edged higher, a spokesman for National Oil Corp said on Wednesday.

TransCanada Corp is in talks with customers about shipping Canadian crude to the United States by rail as an alternative to its Keystone XL pipeline project that has been mired in political delays, Chief Executive Russ Girdling said on Wednesday.

 China’s April crude imports from Iran more than doubled from a year ago to a record of nearly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), pushing imports in the first four months of 2014 above levels seen before tougher Western sanctions were applied in 2012.

Natural gas is trading at 4.483 in the green this morning but remaining in a tight range ahead of today’s EIA inventory release and lack of seasonal demand ahead of summer. U.S. natural gas futures ended down almost 2 percent on expectations for a bigger than normal storage build despite forecasts for much stronger than normal cooling demand. Analysts forecast utilities added 102 billion cubic feet of gas into storage last week, well above the year-before and five-year average builds of 90 bcf. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its gas storage report and inventories are expected to show a surplus. - Fxempire.com

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NYMEX crude oil prices recover in Asia after HSBC China PMI

                   Crude oil prices recovered in Asia Thursday after stronger manufacturing in key importer China in May.

China's HSBC May flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, well above expectations of matching the April reading of 48.1.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in July traded at $104.06 a barrel, bearly flat, after hitting an overnight session low of $102.58 a barrel and a high of $104.27 a barrel.

Brent crude futures on the ICE Futures Europe exchange rose 86 cents to $110.55 a barrel on Wednesday.

Overnight, crude got a bounce higher after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16, far surpassing expectations for a build of 750,000 barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 391.3 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 0.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 3.4 million barrels, compared to expectations for a drop of 0.4 million barrels.

Ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, amid concerns over a disruption to supplies from the region.

Ukraine will hold presidential elections on Sunday, and concerns persist that Russia will meddle in the voting and escalate the crisis. U.S. and European officials have already warned that Russia would face additional sanctions if Moscow disrupts the upcoming elections, including sanctions targeting the Russian economy.

Russia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2012 and exported 7.4 million, making it the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, renewed concerns over Libya's oil output further supported prices, following some of the worst violence the country has seen since the 2011 war against Muammar Qaddafi.

Libya, an OPEC member, is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves, but production there has faltered in the three years following the topple of former leader Qaddafi due to political instability and attacks on oil assets. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 19 - 23

                            New York-traded crude oil futures edged higher on Friday, amid indications that the U.S. economy is shaking off the effect of a weather-related slowdown over the winter, while traders continued to monitor events in Ukraine.

Nymex oil ends the week with a gain of 1.56% on U.S. optimism, Ukraine worries

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in July advanced 0.44%, or 45 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $101.58 a barrel by close of trade.
Futures were likely to find support at $100.82 a barrel, the low from May 15 and resistance at $101.98 a barrel, the high from May 14.

For the week, Nymex oil futures rose 1.56%, or $1.59 a barrel, the first weekly gain in five weeks.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. housing starts rose 13.2% last month, the largest increase in five months and following a 2.0% increase in March.

The upbeat housing data came one day after a report from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell to a six-year low of 297,000.

The robust data underlined the view that the U.S. economy was regaining traction after being slowed by unusually cold temperatures during the winter months.

Meanwhile, heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, amid concerns over a disruption to supplies from the region.

The conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces continued on Friday, stoking fears that the crisis will further develop and drag the U.S. deeper into the standoff.
Russia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2012 and exported 7.4 million, making it the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday, for insight on the central bank's view of the economy.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending May 13.

Net longs totaled 311,195 contracts as of last week, up 3.75% from net longs of 299,543 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery picked up 0.61%, or 66 cents, on Friday to settle at $109.75 a barrel by close of trade.

The July Brent contract rose 1.69% or $1.86 a barrel on the week, amid growing concerns over a disruption to supplies from Libya.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $8.17 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $7.90 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures rise on Ukraine, Libya violence

 

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                       Crude oil futures were higher on Monday, as concerns over a disruption to supplies from Russia and Libya supported prices.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in July advanced 0.53%, or 54 cents, to trade at $102.12 a barrel during European morning hours.

Nymex oil rose to a session high of $102.27 a barrel earlier, the most since April 24. U.S. oil futures ended Friday’s session up 0.44%, or 45 cents, to settle at $101.58 a barrel.

New York-traded oil futures were likely to find support at $100.97 a barrel, the low from May 16 and resistance at $102.34 a barrel, the high from April 24.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery picked up 0.41%, or 45 cents, to trade at $110.20 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at $8.08 a barrel.

Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, amid concerns over a disruption to supplies from the region.

The conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces continued on over the weekend, stoking fears that the crisis will further develop and drag the U.S. deeper into the standoff.
U.S. and European officials warned over the weekend that Russia would have to face additional sanctions if Moscow disrupts the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine on May 25.
Russia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2012 and exported 7.4 million, making it the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, renewed concerns over Libya's oil output further supported prices, following some of the worst violence the country has seen since the 2011 war against Muammar Qaddafi.

Libya, an OPEC member, is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves, but production there has faltered in the three years following the topple of former leader Qaddafi due to political instability and attacks on oil assets. - investing.com

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Copper rallies to 11-week high on China stimulus hopes

          Copper prices extended last week’s gains to hit an 11-week high on Monday, as disappointing housing data from China fuelled speculation policymakers will unveil fresh stimulus measures to stabilize the economy.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery advanced 0.79%, or 2.5 cents, to trade at $3.172 a pound during European morning hours.
Copper rose to a session high of $3.184 a pound earlier, the most since March 7. Prices eased up 0.08%, or 0.2 cents, on Friday to settle at $3.147 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.127 a pound, the low from May 16 and resistance at $3.219 a pound, the high from March 7.

Data released over the weekend showed that house prices in China rose 6.7% in April from a year earlier, slowing from a 7.7% increase in the previous month.

The disappointing data added to hopes that China’s government will introduce fresh stimulus to combat recent signs of a slowdown in the nation’s economy.

The next slice of Chinese economic data to come out will be the HSBC preliminary purchasing managers' index for May, due on Thursday.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery rose 0.53%, or $6.80, to trade at $1,300.20 a troy ounce, while silver for July delivery jumped 1.24%, or 23.9 cents, to trade at $19.56 an ounce.

Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to support demand for safe haven assets.

The conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces continued on over the weekend, stoking fears that the crisis will further develop and drag the U.S. deeper into the standoff.

U.S. and European officials warned over the weekend that Russia would have to face additional sanctions if Moscow disrupts the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine on May 25. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

                U.S. crude oil futures settled near six-week highs on Thursday as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin prices, while upbeat U.S. economic data bolstered the demand outlook.

Nymex oil futures ended the holiday shortened week with gains of 1.06%.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for delivery in May ended Thursday’s session at $104.58 a barrel, not far from the peaks of $104.97 reached in the previous session. Trading on the NYMEX was closed for Good Friday.

Oil futures moved higher after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region strengthened more than forecast in April.

Crude prices were also supported as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine fanned fears over possible supply disruptions from Russia, the world largest energy exporter.

Concerns over the crisis in eastern Ukraine eased somewhat on Thursday after Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union said an agreement on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis had been reached.

Heightened geopolitical risk overshadowed a report on Wednesday showing a far larger than expected increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 10.01 million barrels in the week ended April 11. It was the largest inventory build since March 2001. Analysts had expected an injection of 2.25 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 394.1 million barrels, the most since June.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 1.66 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 1.27 million barrels.

The May Brent oil contract ended Thursday’s session $109.69 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and ended the week with gains of 0.73%.

The spread between the Brent and the Nymex crude contracts stood at $5.11 a barrel by close of trade, compared to $4.00 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

           Gold prices ended the week sharply lower on Thursday, falling below the $1,300 level as indications that the U.S. economic recovery is progressing dampened safe haven demand for the precious metal.

Gold came under pressure after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery ended Thursday’s session at $1,294.90 an ounce. The precious metal ended the week down 2.34%. The Comex was closed for Good Friday.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region strengthened more than forecast in April.

Meanwhile, concerns over the crisis in eastern Ukraine eased on Thursday after Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union said an agreement on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis had been reached.

Gold, seen as a safe haven investment, usually benefits from economic and geopolitical turmoil.

Concerns over weakening demand from top buyer China also weighed on gold prices.

Prices for the precious metal posted the largest one day decline since December 19 on Tuesday after the World Gold Council said that Chinese gold demand is likely to remain flat this year, as a result of the country's economic slowdown and constrained credit markets.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery rose 0.2% to $19.64 a troy ounce on the Comex, trimming the week’s losses to 1.59%.

Copper futures for May delivery edged up to $3.049 a pound at the close on Thursday, to end the holiday shortened week with gains of 0.24%. - investing.com

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Gold, silver inch lower ahead of ECB meeting, U.S. data

             Gold and silver prices weakened in cautious trade on Thursday, as investors stuck to the sidelines ahead of a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later in the day as well as the release of key U.S. economic data.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor June delivery held in a tight range between $1,285.80 a troy ounce and $1,294.20 an ounce.

Gold last traded at $1,287.50 an ounce during European morning hours, down 0.26%, or $3.40. Futures rallied 0.84%, or $10.80 an ounce, on Wednesday to settle at $1,290.80.

Gold futures were likely to find support at $1,277.40 a troy ounce, the low from April 1 and resistance at $1,299.30, the high from March 31.

Meanwhile, silver for May delivery lost 0.83%, or 16.7 cents, to trade at $19.88 a troy ounce. Silver ended Wednesday’s session up 1.84%, or 36.2 cents, to settle at $20.05 an ounce.

Silver futures were likely to find support at $19.63 an ounce, the low from April 1 and resistance at $20.14, the high from April 2.

Recent weak euro zone inflation data has added to pressure on the ECB to take steps to stave off the risk of deflation.

However, most investors expected the ECB to leave monetary policy on hold, after Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said over the weekend that the region is not in a deflationary cycle, and that the recent slowdown in inflation was due in large part to temporary factors, such as falls in food and energy prices.

Market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

On Wednesday, payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 191,000 in March, adding to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.

Gold and silver have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as upbeat U.S. economic data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper for May delivery slumped 0.57%, or 1.7 cents, to trade at $3.028 a pound after China unveiled a mini-stimulus package, disappointing market expectations for more drastic measures.

China's State Council said Wednesday that it will increase spending on railways and housing, as policymakers attempt to boost slowing growth in Asia’s largest economy.

However, the announcement disappointed market participants, who had expected more stimulus in the form of looser monetary policy, such as a cut in bank reserve requirements.

Mixed data on China’s services sector also weighed. HSBC’s China services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.9 last month from 51.0 in February, but the official nonmanufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in March from 55.0 in the previous month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - investing.com

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Copper declines as China mini-stimulus package disappoints

Copper prices declined on Thursday, after China unveiled a mini-stimulus package, disappointing market expectations for more drastic measures.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,copper for May delivery traded at $3.025 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.67%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper fell to a session low of $3.015 a pound earlier, the least since March 28. Futures tacked on 0.36%, or 1.1 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $3.045 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.990 a pound, the low from March 28 and resistance at $3.074 a pound, the high from April 2.

China's State Council said Wednesday that it will increase spending on railways and housing, as policymakers attempt to boost slowing growth in Asia’s largest economy.

However, the announcement disappointed market participants, who had expected more stimulus in the form of looser monetary policy, such as a cut in bank reserve requirements.

Mixed data on China’s services sector also weighed. HSBC’s China services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.9 last month from 51.0 in February, but the official nonmanufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in March from 55.0 in the previous month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery shed 0.35%, or $4.50, to trade at $1,286.30 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery lost 0.96%, or 19.2 cents, to trade at $19.85 an ounce.

Gold and silver prices weakened ahead of the release of upcoming U.S. economic data and a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later in the day.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

Traders will also be awaiting the outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting later Thursday, amid growing concerns over the threat of deflation in the region. - investing.com

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WTI oil futures decline with ECB meeting, U.S. jobs data in focus

                  West Texas Intermediate oil futures edged lower on Thursday, as markets were jittery ahead of the European Central Bank's monthly policy statement later in the day as well as Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude for delivery in May held in a range between $99.18 a barrel and $99.48 a barrel.

Nymex oil last traded at $99.41 a barrel during European morning hours, down 0.22%, or 21 cents. The May contract fell to $98.86 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since March 25, before settling at $99.62, down 0.12%, or 12 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $98.82 a barrel, the low from March 25 and resistance at $101.57 a barrel, the high from April 1.

Recent weak euro zone inflation data has added to pressure on the ECB to take steps to stave off the risk of deflation.

However, most investors expected the ECB to leave monetary policy on hold, after Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said over the weekend that the region is not in a deflationary cycle, and that the recent slowdown in inflation was due in large part to temporary factors, such as falls in food and energy prices.

Market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on service sector activity. Investors were also beginning to turn their attention to Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

On Wednesday, payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 191,000 in March, adding to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery eased down 0.05%, or 5 cents, to trade at $104.74 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at $5.33 a barrel.

London-traded Brent futures fell to a five-month low of $103.95 a barrel on Wednesday, amid expectations oil exports from Libya will begin picking up in the near-term. - investing.com

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