Dollar Approaches 9-Month High on Economy, Ukraine; Kiwi Slides

                    The dollar approached the strongest in almost nine months versus the euro as signs the U.S. economy is strengthening and tensions over Ukraine are increasing boosted the appeal of American assets.

A gauge of the greenback climbed toward the highest since February after data yesterday showed factory orders and service activity increased and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said his fellow policy makers were becoming more “hawkish.” Poland said a buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine border raises the specter of a possible invasion. New Zealand’s dollar slid to a two-month low after job growth slowed more than economists forecast and dairy prices fell.

“A strong batch of U.S. data helped the U.S. dollar’s cause,” said Imre Speizer, a markets strategist based in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp. “There was also a good dose of risk aversion last night, and that would’ve helped the U.S. dollar as well.”

The dollar gained 0.1 percent to $1.3368 per euro as of 1:13 p.m. in Tokyo after advancing to $1.3358 yesterday, the strongest since Nov. 11. The U.S. currency was little changed at 102.56 yen. The yen appreciated 0.1 percent to 137.11 per euro.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,023.45 after climbing to 1,024.01 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 13.

Recovery Signs

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index expanded in July at the fastest pace since December 2005, the group said yesterday. Factory orders climbed 1.1 percent in June, almost twice as much as predicted in a Bloomberg News survey, after falling a revised 0.6 percent the previous month, the Census Bureau said.

The Federal Open Market Committee “is coming in my direction,” Fisher said in an interview with Fox Business Network yesterday. The Dallas Fed president said he has a “hawkish slant” on monetary policy.

Fisher is trying to help out the dollar “with his usual hawkish comments,” Emma Lawson, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, wrote today in a client note. “It seems the market may just be swinging around to believe him.”

Traders are willing to pay a premium for one-month options to buy the dollar against all of its 16 major counterparts, 25-delta risk reversals show.

Ukraine Tension

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to prepare a response to U.S. and European sanctions. He has shown no sign of backing down over Ukraine, with Russia massing forces on its neighbor’s border in the biggest military buildup since troops were withdrawn from the area in May.

The dollar has strengthened 1.7 percent in the past month, the best performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen gained 1.2 percent, while the euro fell 0.2 percent.

The kiwi dropped for a second day after Statistics New Zealand said employment increased 0.4 percent in the second quarter, less than the median estimate of 0.7 percent growth among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“Before this report, there was a bias to sell the kiwi dollar,” Westpac’s Speizer said. “This gives the market an excuse to go and do some more.”

The currency also weakened after GlobalDairyTrade said whole milk powder prices tumbled 11.5 percent at auction yesterday to a two-year low. That extended the decline to 46 percent from a peak in February.

The New Zealand dollar declined 0.4 percent to 84.35 U.S. cents after sliding to 84.24 cents, the weakest since June 5. - Bloomberg

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WTI Trades Near 3-Day High Before U.S. Supply Data; Brent Steady

                      West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in three days before supply data that will signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent in London was steady.

Futures were little changed in New York after snapping a five-day losing streak yesterday. Gasoline stockpiles probably fell for the first time since June last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a government report tomorrow. Kurdish fighters in Iraq retook northern border towns seized by militants from Islamic State, a breakaway al-Qaeda group, the Kurdistan Democratic Party said on its website.

“It’s been a good driving season,” David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone, referring to the summer period of peak fuel demand. “There is quite a sound floor below the price at the moment.”

WTI for September delivery was at $98.38 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 9 cents, at 2:45 p.m. Sydney time. The contract gained 0.4 percent to $98.29 yesterday, the highest close since July 30. The volume of all futures traded was about 39 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are little changed this year.

Brent for September settlement rose 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $105.59 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.20 to WTI. It closed at $7.12 yesterday.

Fuel Supplies

WTI declined 4.1 percent last week amid signs of weaker U.S. fuel demand. Gasoline supplies probably fell by 300,000 barrels to 217.9 million during the week ended Aug. 1, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the Energy Information Administration report. The country’s peak driving season typically runs from the end of May to Labor Day on Sept. 1.

U.S. crude inventories shrank by 1.5 million barrels to 365.9 million, the survey shows. Distillate stockpiles, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, expanded by 700,000 barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release separate supply data today. The industry-funded group in Washington collects data on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the EIA.

Mideast Unrest

Kurdish fighters recaptured Sinjar and Rabia’ah near the Syrian border after heavy fighting yesterday, according to the Kurdistan Democratic Party. At least 50 Islamic State militants were killed as security forces battled to regain the village of Wana, south of Mosul dam.

The conflict has spared supply from Iraq’s south, home to more than three-quarters of its crude output. The nation is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ second-largest producer, pumping 3 million barrels a day in July.

In Libya, turmoil could have “negative ramifications on a global scale” if the country continues to spiral out of control, Abu Bakr Bueira, a senior lawmaker told the country’s newly elected parliament yesterday. The nation is the smallest OPEC producer and holds Africa’s biggest oil reserves. - Bloomberg

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Gold Seen Reaching $1,400 by USAGOLD as U.S. Inflation Quickens

                   Gold will extend this year’s surprise rally and climb to the highest price since September on the outlook for accelerating inflation, USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals Inc. said.

The metal will reach $1,400 an ounce by the end of the year, also supported by higher demand from Asia, Peter Grant, chief market analyst at USAGOLD in Denver said in a telephone interview yesterday. Bullion will climb even if the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, because gains in borrowing costs will probably be accompanied by rising consumer prices, he said.

Gold futures surged 57 percent in the two years through June 30, 2006, as the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 5.25 percent from 1.25 percent. Interest rates rose as the central bank struggled to contain inflation that accelerated to 4.3 percent, from 3.3 percent. Bullion fell 3 percent in July as the prospect of rising borrowing costs curbed the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset.

“If you look back over time, there are plenty of instances where rates have risen and gold has risen as well,” said Grant, who has tracked the precious metal for 28 years. “Inflation was going up and the Fed was chasing inflation by raising interest rates during that period,” he said, referring to 2004 to 2006.

The metal rallied 7.2 percent this year to $1,288.90 on the Comex in New York partly as violence in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip boosted demand for haven assets. Gold tumbled 28 percent in 2013, the biggest slump in three decades, as signs of accelerating U.S. economic growth raised concern that the Fed’s stimulus would end.

India Imports

The central bank reduced its monthly bond-buying program to $25 billion on July 30, making a sixth consecutive $10 billion cut.

Gold imports by India, the world’s second-largest user, jumped 65 percent in June after the central bank allowed more banks and traders to buy bullion overseas, widening the nation’s trade deficit to an 11-month high.

“I’m primarily looking at the actual physical demand driving prices higher,” Grant said. “I also think inflation is going to pick up a little bit as I anticipate that energy prices are going to rise by year-end as well.”

USAGOLD is a precious-metals dealer. - bloomberg

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Gold Above One-Month Low as U.S. Economy Assessed With Rates

                   Gold traded above a one-month low after three weeks of losses as investors weighed the health of the U.S. economy against the outlook for higher borrowing costs. Silver climbed from the lowest level in six weeks.

Gold for immediate delivery was at $1,292.90 an ounce at 11:31 a.m. in Singapore from $1,293.75 on Aug. 1, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. That day the metal fell to $1,279.30 an ounce, the lowest since June 19, before rebounding to pare the third week of losses that was the longest since September.

U.S. data Aug. 1 showed that while employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth month, the jobless rate rose, damping bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon after ending monthly bond purchases later this year. That buoyed bullion as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a six-day win streak. Gold also rose on Aug. 1 as global equities fell after Banco Espirito Santo SA, which was taken over by Portugal’s central bank yesterday, was ordered to raise capital and Argentina defaulted.

“Gold had a reprieve as the dollar pulled back after the payrolls data,” said Zhang Lin, an analyst at Yongan Futures Co. in Hangzhou, China. “The U.S. has entered a monetary-tightening cycle and gold will continue to face downward pressure in the mid to longer term.”

Gold for December delivery traded at $1,293.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York from $1,294.80 on Aug. 1, when futures climbed 0.9 percent to trim a third weekly drop. Money managers cut their net-long position 10 percent in the week through July 29, the most since June, U.S. government data show.

Silver for immediate delivery added 0.2 percent to $20.3665 an ounce, after earlier falling to $20.255 an ounce, the lowest price since June 19. The metal retreated 3 percent in July for the biggest monthly loss since March.

Spot platinum lost 0.1 percent to $1,462.88 an ounce after declining in July. Palladium decreased 0.1 percent to $863.85 an ounce after prices capped a sixth month of gains in July for the longest such run since January 2011. - Bloomberg

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WTI Trades Near Six-Month Low Before Economic Data; Brent Holds

                  West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in six months before data that will signal the strength of the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

Futures were little changed in New York after capping the biggest weekly decline in seven months on Aug. 1. The Markit Economics purchasing managers index for U.S. services is due tomorrow, while factory order data is also scheduled this week. In Iraq, militants took control of two oil fields in the north after clashes, according to the Northern Oil Co.

“There is no fear about supply,” said Ken Hasegawa, an energy trading manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo. “On technical charts, we saw big drops last week, and both WTI and Brent are down to one of the support levels. WTI is very close to $97.50 a barrel and Brent to $104 a barrel. If those levels hold, the market will rebound.”

WTI for September delivery was at $98 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 12 cents, at 1:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract slid 0.3 percent to $97.88 on Aug. 1, the lowest close since Feb. 6. The volume of all futures traded was about 1.3 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are down 0.5 percent this year.

Brent for September settlement rose 21 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $105.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.08 to WTI. It closed at $6.96 on Aug. 1.

Fuel Demand

WTI declined 4.1 percent last week amid signs of weaker U.S. fuel demand. Gasoline supplies rose to the highest level in four months as average consumption of the fuel dropped to the lowest since May, even after the country’s peak driving season started with the Memorial Day holiday on May 26.

Markit’s final reading of a gauge for U.S. services is projected to be 60.8 in July, down from 61 in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Factory orders probably rose to 0.6 percent in June, a separate survey shows.

Hedge funds and other money managers trimmed their bullish bets on WTI, extending the drop from this year’s peak in June to 22 percent, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-long positions fell 1,375 to 276,741 futures and options combined in the week ended July 29, according to the CFTC.

Mideast Unrest

In Iraq, the Ain Zala and Batma oil fields are under full control of Islamic State, a breakaway al-Qaeda group, according to the state-run Northern Oil Co. Together they have an output of 30,000 barrels per day. The Sunni Islamist militants last month occupied the Qayyara field north of Baghdad.

Fighting has spared supply from Iraq’s south, home to more than three-quarters of its crude output. The nation is the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping 3 million barrels a day in July.

In Libya, Britain dispatched its navy to evacuate its nationals as 22 other people were killed as a result of militia feuds near Tripoli’s international airport. The nation is the holder of Africa’s biggest oil reserves.

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WTI Drops Below $100 as U.S. Fuel Supplies Rise; Brent Declines

                           West Texas Intermediate dropped for a fourth day and slipped below $100 as gasoline stockpiles rose and demand declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent decreased in London.

Futures fell as much as 1.1 percent in New York. Gasoline supplies expanded by 365,000 barrels last week to 218.2 million, the highest level in four months, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday. Average consumption shrank 0.5 percent over the past four weeks to thelowest since May, even as the country’s peak driving season started with the Memorial Day holiday on May 26.

“This should be a period of peak demand,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “The price action is telling us the world does not have an issue with the supply of crude. Oil at $100 is a big level, and I don’t think it will give it up so quickly.”

WTI for September delivery slid as much as $1.11 to $99.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $99.63 at 1:58 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 0.7 percent to $100.27 yesterday, the lowest close since July 15. The volume of all futures traded was about 7 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are down 5.5 percent in July, the most in nine months.

Brent for September settlement fell as much as 63 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $105.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.64 to WTI, from $6.24 yesterday.

Crude Stockpiles

WTI slid last week as gasoline stockpiles rose the most in six months to the highest level since March, fueling speculation of slowing demand. Consumption of the fuel during the past four weeks shrank to an average 8.95 million barrels a day, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

Crude inventories dropped 3.7 million barrels to 367.4 million in the week ended July 25, said the EIA. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, decreased by 924,000 barrels to 17.9 million, the lowest since October 2008.

Stockpiles of distillates, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, expanded by 789,000 barrels to 126.7 million, the highest level since September 2013.

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Gold Heads for Longest Drop in 2 Months as U.S. Economy Improves

                   Gold retreated for a fourth day to head for a monthly decline as further signs that the U.S. recovery is gaining momentum strengthened the case for higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $1,294.24 an ounce, and was at $1,294.97 at 11:28 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. A fourth day of losses would be the longest streak since June. Bullion dropped 2.4 percent in July, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for the biggest monthly rise since May 2013, as data including gross domestic product beat estimates.

Gold sank 28 percent last year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would trim monthly bond buying, which it did for a sixth time yesterday. Policy makers also said in their July 30 statement that slack in the labor market persisted even as the economy was picking up, repeating that they will keep interest rates low for a considerable time after ending asset purchases. Data tomorrow may show U.S. employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth month.

“Positive U.S. economic data is good for the dollar and bad for gold,” said Lv Jie, an analyst at Cinda Futures Co., a unit of one of four funds inChina created to buy bad debt from banks. “Geopolitical concerns still exist for support but the longer-term downtrend is unchanged as the U.S. moves toward tighter monetary policy.”

Bullion rebounded 7.8 percent this year as unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East boosted haven demand. Gaza’s main public market was hit by Israeli air strikes yesterday as the U.S. and European Union escalated sanctions against Russia.

ETP Inflow

Gold for December delivery traded at $1,296 an ounce on the Comex in New York from $1,296.90. U.S. exchange-traded products backed by precious metals took in $536.81 million this month, as of July 29, after a net outflow of $319 million in the six months to June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Palladium for immediate delivery traded at $880.76 an ounce from $880.35 yesterday, poised for a sixth month of gains in the longest such run since January 2011. The metal rallied to $889.75 on July 17, the highest price since February 2001, amid concern sanctions against Russia may curb supplies from the world’s largest producer.

Palladium, mainly used in catalytic converters, advanced 23 percent this year as output was disrupted by a five-month mine strike that ended in June in South Africa, the second-largest producer, while usage in cars increased.

Spot silver fell 0.2 percent to $20.5712 an ounce, heading for a 2.1 percent decline this month. Platinum was at $1,478.69 an ounce from $1,479.63 yesterday, set for the first monthly drop in four. - Bloomberg

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US economy grows 4% in second quarter

            

               The US economy grew at an annual rate of 4 per cent in the second quarter, according to an initial Government estimate on Wednesday.

The figure marks a turnaround after gross domestic product registered its first decline in three years in the previous quarter.

The rebound in the April-June period reflected gains in consumer spending and business inventory. Consumer spending rose 2.5 per cent, spurred by purchases of durable goods after growing just 1.2 per cent in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.

The boost in second quarter GDP outpaced economists’ expectations. A survey of economists by Bloomberg news agency had predicted 3 per cent growth in the period.

Updated data showed first quarter growth fell a revised 2.1 per cent, less than the 2.9 per cent drop the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last month.

The steep first quarter decline was attributed to an extremely hard winter that kept consumer spending down along with declines in private inventory investment and state and local Government spending.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week lowered its 2014 growth forecast for the US economy, pointing to the extremely weak first quarter.

GDP would increase by a “disappointing” 1.7 per cent over the year, the Washington-headquartered IMF said in a report.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said it would cut its monthly purchases of government-linked bonds to $25 billion, down from the $35 billion level set at the central bank’s last meeting in June.

The latest cut continues a policy launched in January of regularly trimming the stimulus programme. Until then, the Fed had been buying $85 billion of bonds every month.

The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the unprecedented, near-zero level in place since December 2008.

The GDP figures released on Wednesday are an initial estimate based on incomplete data and the Government is due to release more complete figures next month. - thehindubusinessline.com

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IMF Reduces Growth For US & China Lowering Implied Demand For Oil

                    On Thursday the International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2014 global economic growth forecast, warning of “negative surprises” from the United States and China and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East. The IMF projected global growth of 3.4 per cent for this year, down from its April estimate of 3.7 per cent. In 2013, the world economy grew 3.2 percent. The downgraded 2014 growth outlook reflects “both the legacy of the weak first quarter, particularly in the United States, and a less optimistic outlook for several emerging markets,” the IMF said, in an update of its semiannual World Economic Outlook.

The downgrade weighed on implied demand for energy products. The brief update showed the IMF increasingly concerned by escalating geopolitical tensions. “Geopolitical risks have risen relative to April: risks of an oil price spike are higher due to recent developments in the Middle East while those related to Ukraine are still present,” the report said. Despite the worse-than-expected global growth outlook for 2014, the IMF left its 2015 forecast unchanged at an annual rate of 4.0 per cent, the fastest pace since 2011.

The lower growth rates weigh on commodity demands, but at the same time the increase in geopolitical concerns pushes the price of crude oil on worries over supply and production disruption. WTI slipped $1.05, or 1 percent, to end at $102.07. The volume of all futures traded was 23 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Brentdeclined 96 cents, or 0.9 percent, to close at $107.07 a barrel 

West Texas Intermediate crude declined with gasoline as U.S. inventories of the motor fuel expanded for a third week, threatening to depress refining margins. Gasoline stockpiles grew by 3.38 million barrels last week and supplies around New York Harbor, where futures contracts are delivered, were at the highest seasonal level since 2008, Energy Information Administration data showed. Gasoline futures ended at the lowest price in almost six months. Gasoline futures for August delivery dropped 2.33 cents to $2.8368 a gallon on the Nymex, the lowest settlement since Feb. 28. Ultra low sulfur diesel dropped 0.45 cent to $2.8709.

Natural gas gained after the release of the weekly EIA inventory report. Gas climbed to trade at 3.847 adding 8 points this morning. The report showed a net increase of 90 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 561 Bcf less than last year at this time and 683 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,902 Bcf with the total working gas below the 5-year historical range. - fxempire

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U.S. oil futures decline ahead of weekly supply data

                  West Texas Intermediate oil futures declined on Wednesday, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in September dipped 0.41%, or 41 cents, to trade at $101.98 a barrel during European morning hours. Futures held in a tight range between $101.80 and $102.34 a barrel.

U.S. oil futures ended Tuesday’s session down 0.46%, or 47 cents, to settle at $102.39 a barrel.

New York-traded oil futures were likely to find support at $101.48 a barrel, the low from July 21 and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, the high from July 22.

Wednesday’s government report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles were forecast to increase by 1.3 million barrels.

After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 555,000 barrels in the week ended July 18, compared to expectations for a decline of 2.6 million barrels.

The report also showed that gasoline stockpiles increased by 3.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 2.5 million barrels.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery shed 0.13%, or 14 cents, to trade at $107.19 a barrel, as traders awaited new developments from Ukraine and the Middle East.

The European Union threatened Russia on Tuesday with harsher sanctions over Ukraine, while fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israeli security forces and Hamas militants continued. - investing.com

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NYMEX crude oil prices dip in Asia with U.S. supply data in focus

      

          

                  Crude oil prices dipped slightly in ASia on Tuersday with U.S. industry supply data later and government figures the following day likely setting the tone.

U.S. oil supplies have fallen for three straight weeks. Stockpiles typically shrink at this time of year as refineries process more oil into gasoline and other fuels to meet summer-driving demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in September traded at $102.81 a barrel, down 0.05%, after hitting an overnight session low of $101.49 a barrel and a high of $102.46 a barrel.

The August contract expires Tuesday.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled up 0.4% to $107.68 a barrel Monday.

Concerns that tensions in Ukraine will escalate and threaten Russian oil exports sent crude prices rising on Monday as did fears that Israel's ground offensive in Gaza may embroil the broader Middle East.

Reports that Ukrainian troops were moving in to the rebel-held city of Donetsk only days after pro-Russian separatists allegedly shot down a Malaysian Airline flight with a missile fueled geopolitical concerns on Monday, bolstering crude prices in the process.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Israel pressed on with its ground offensive in Gaza in a conflict that has killed hundreds.

Earlier Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama said he was concerned about the violence and called for a ceasefire in Gaza.

President Obama also accused pro-Russian separatists of tampering with evidence pointing to the cause for the Malaysian Airlines crash, adding that the burden lies on Russia to disclose such evidence. - investing.com

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