Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: August 4 - 8

                   

West Texas Intermediate oil futures tumbled to a six-month low on Friday, as concerns over U.S. demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in September fell to a session low of $97.09 a barrel on Friday, the weakest since February 5, before coming off the lows to settle at $97.88, down 0.3%, or 29 cents.

Nymex oil prices were likely to find support at $96.80, the low from February 5 and resistance at $99.85, the high from July 31.

The U.S. Department of Labor said Friday that non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 209,000 in July, below expectations for an increase of 233,000.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% last month from 6.1% in June. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.1% in July.

The disappointing jobs report dampened optimism over the strength of the labor market and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

For the week, Nymex oil futures plunged 4.12%, or $4.21, the worst weekly decline since January.

U.S. oil futures lost more than $2-per-barrel on Thursday as bearish inventory data and heavy losses on Wall Street sent oil below the $100-level.

Weekly supply data showed that total motor gasoline inventories in the U.S. increased by 0.4 million barrels last week to 218.2 million, the highest level in four months.

The ongoing buildup in gasoline stocks during the peak summer driving season in the U.S. was seen as bearish for oil prices, amid speculation of slowing demand.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending July 29.

Net longs totaled 276,741 contracts as of last week, down 0.49% from net longs of 278,116 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery fell to a daily low of $104.39 a barrel on Friday, the weakest level since April 2, before settling at $104.84 by close of trade, down 1.11%, or $1.18.

The September Brent contract lost 3.27%, or $3.55, on the week, as global supplies were seen as ample despite ongoing violence in Iraq, Libya and Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $6.96 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $6.30 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcomes of a spate of central bank meetings, with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia all to hold monetary policy assessments. - investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: August 4 - 8

                     U.S. natural gas futures lost more than 1% on Friday, as demand for the fuel was likely to remain limited after meteorologists predicted mild summer weather in much of the U.S. through the next few days.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in September dropped 1.12%, or 4.3 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $3.798 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.725 per million British thermal units, the low from July 28 and resistance at $3.890, the high from July 31.

Natural gas prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions after updated weather-forecasting models called for mild summer weather across much of the U.S. over the next several days.

Demand for natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use.

Despite Friday’s losses, Nymex natural gas prices tacked on 0.44%, or 1.7 cents, on the week, the first weekly gain in seven weeks.

Natural gas futures rallied almost 1.5% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 88 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 93 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.307 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 21.7% from 23.5% a week earlier and down from a record 54.7% at the end of March.

The EIA's next storage report is slated for release on Thursday, August 7, with analysts expecting a build of 87 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 1.

Inventories rose by 90 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 49 billion cubic feet.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers significantly decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending July 29.

Net longs totaled 16,060 contracts, down 42.1% from net longs of 27,748 in the previous week.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, U.S. crude oil for September delivery settled at $97.88 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 4.12%, or $4.21, on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for September delivery slumped 1.57% on the week to settle at $2.866 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: August 4 - 8

                                     Gold futures bounced off a six-week low to end Friday’s session almost 1% higher, following the release of weaker than expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for July.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor December delivery jumped 0.94%, or $12.00, on Friday to end the week at $1,294.80 a troy ounce.

Prices fell to a session low of $1,281.00 an ounce earlier Friday, the weakest level since June 19.

Gold prices were likely to find support at $1,276.20, the low from June 19 and resistance at $1,314.60, the high from July 29.

Gold regained strength after the U.S. Department of Labor said non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 209,000 in July, below expectations for an increase of 233,000.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% last month from 6.1% in June. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.1% in July.

The disappointing jobs report dampened optimism over the strength of the labor market and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

Despite Friday’s strong gains, Comex gold prices declined 0.65%, or $8.50, on the week, the third consecutive weekly loss, as strong U.S. economic data underlined the view that the recovery is gaining momentum.

Official data on Wednesday showed that U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.0% in the three months to June, outstripping forecasts of 3.0% and following a contraction of 2.1% in the first three months of the year.

Meanwhile, the Fed cut its asset purchase program by $10 billion to $25 billion per month at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, staying on course to end the bond-buying program in October.

Gold has been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as an improving U.S. economy fuelled speculation that the Fed will hike interest rates sooner than expected, which would reduce the need for gold for use as a hedge against loose monetary policy.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending July 29.

Net longs totaled 122,092 contracts, down 10.3% from net longs of 136,120 in the preceding week.

Also on the Comex, silver for September delivery shed 0.2%, or 4.1 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $20.37 a troy ounce. Prices slumped to a daily low of $20.24 earlier in the session, the cheapest since June 19.

On the week, the September silver futures contract lost 1.26%, or 26.0 cents, the third straight weekly decline.

Data from the CFTC showed that net silver longs totaled 41,699 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 46,221 contracts in the preceding week.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery declined 0.51%, or 1.6 cents, on Friday to end the week at $3.214 a pound by close of trade.

On the week, Comex copper prices fell 0.8%, or 2.9 cents a pound, as investors gauged the health of China’s manufacturing sector.

Official data released Friday showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to a two-year high of 51.7 in July from 51.0 in June, beating market expectations for a 51.4 reading.

Still, China's HSBC final manufacturing PMI for July ticked down to 51.7 from a preliminary reading of 52.0. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged.

China is the world's biggest buyer of copper, accounting for roughly 40% of the market.

According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 38,859 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 44,107 contracts in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcomes of a spate of central bank meetings, with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia all to hold monetary policy assessments. - investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: July 28 - August 1

            

                    U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday’s session close to an eight-month low, as demand for the fuel was likely to remain limited after meteorologists predicted mild summer weather in much of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in August tumbled 1.72%, or 6.6 cents, on Friday to settle at $3.781 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

Natural gas futures fell to $3.744 on Thursday, the lowest since November 26.

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 4.3%, or 17.0 cents, the sixth consecutive weekly decline.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.741 per million British thermal units, the low from November 26 and resistance at $3.886, the high from July 24.

Natural gas prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions after updated weather-forecasting models called for cooler temperatures across most parts of the heavily-populated Midwest and Northeast regions over the next ten days.

Demand for natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use.

Prices rallied more than 2% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 90 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 96 billion cubic feet.

The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 46 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.219 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 23.5%, down from a record 54.7% at the end of March.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending July 22.

Net longs totaled 27,748 contracts, down 26.2% from net longs of 37,617 in the previous week.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for September delivery settled at $102.09 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, up 0.13%, or 14 cents, on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for August delivery advanced 2.19% on the week to settle at $2.912 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: July 28 - August 1

           

                     Brent oil futures rallied to a one-week high on Friday, as investors continued to assess the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery rose to a daily high of $108.46 a barrel on Friday, the most since July 18, before settling at $108.39 by close of trade, up 1.23%, or $1.32.

The September Brent contract advanced 1.06%, or $1.15, on the week, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Investors continued to closely watch an intensifying geopolitical crisis between Moscow and the West over the situation in Ukraine.

The Pentagon said Friday that Russia has escalated the violence in Ukraine and may be set to provide more sophisticated weapons to pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Russia is one of the world's top producers and exporters of oil and gas.

Meanwhile, fighting between Israel and Hamas showed little sign of abating, despite ongoing efforts by the U.S. to reach a ceasefire.

Market participants are worried that a flare up in the conflict could draw in neighboring countries and affect oil supplies.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in September fell to a session low of $101.00 a barrel on Friday, the weakest since July 17, before coming off the lows to settle at $102.09, up 0.02%, or 2 cents.

U.S. oil prices were weighed by weekly supply data which showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, above forecasts for a gain of 1.3 million barrels.

The larger than expected increase in gasoline stocks during the summer driving season in the U.S. was bearish for oil prices.

For the week, Nymex oil futures eased up 0.13%, or 14 cents, the second straight weekly gain.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending July 22.

Net longs totaled 278,116 contracts as of last week, up 6.8% from net longs of 259,259 in the preceding week.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $6.30 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $5.29 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on U.S. second quarter growth, while Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will also be in focus.

Wednesday’s Fed statement will also be closely watched for any indications that the central bank is moving closer to raising rates.

The Commerce Department on Friday reported a rise of 0.7% in orders of long lasting goods such as machinery and electronic products, compared to forecasts of 0.5%.

The data came a day after the U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 19 declined by 19,000 to hit an eight-year low of 284,000. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: July 28 - August 1

                          Gold futures rallied 1% on Friday, as investors continued to monitor geopolitical concerns in the Gaza strip and Ukraine.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor August delivery jumped 0.97%, or $12.50, on Friday to end the week at $1,303.30 a troy ounce.

Gold prices were likely to find support at $1,287.50, the low from July 24 and resistance at $1,316.80, the high from July 22.

Gold’s safe haven appeal was boosted on Friday as investors continued to closely watch an intensifying geopolitical crisis between Moscow and the West over the situation in Ukraine.

The Pentagon said Friday that Russia has escalated the violence in Ukraine and may be set to provide more sophisticated weapons to pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, fighting between Israel and Hamas showed little sign of abating, despite ongoing efforts by the U.S. to reach a ceasefire.

Gold is often seen as a haven investment in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite Friday’s strong gains, Comex gold prices declined 0.46%, or $6.10 an ounce, on the week, the second consecutive weekly loss.

Gold tumbled to a five-week low of $1,287.50 on Thursday after upbeat U.S. economic data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than expected.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 19 declined by 19,000 to hit an eight-year low of 284,000.

On Friday, the Census Bureau said that U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June, beating expectations for a 0.5% gain. Core durable goods orders, which are stripped of transportation items, grew 0.8% in June, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain.

The data primed market expectations for the Fed to wind down its bond-buying stimulus program around October and raise interest rates in 2015, which would reduce the need for gold for use as a hedge against loose monetary policy.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. will also release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for July later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on second quarter economic growth.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending July 22.

Net longs totaled 136,120 contracts, up 3.1% from net longs of 131,971 in the preceding week.

Also on the Comex, silver for September delivery climbed 1.08%, or 22.1 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $20.63 a troy ounce, as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations after prices dropped to a five-week low on Thursday.

On the week, the September silver futures contract lost 1.19%, or 25.0 cents, the second straight weekly decline.

Data from the CFTC showed that net silver longs totaled 46,221 contracts as of last week, down slightly from net longs of 46,795 contracts in the preceding week.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery rallied to a daily high of $3.279 a pound on Friday, the most since July 13, before turning lower to end at $3.240 by close of trade, down 0.8%, or 2.6 cents.

On the week, Comex copper prices rose 1.72%, or 5.6 cents a pound as growing optimism over the health of the U.S. economy and speculation demand from top consumer China will increase in the near-term boosted prices.

According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 44,107 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 48,994 contracts in the preceding week. -investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: July 14 - 18

                  U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday’s session close to a six-month low, as concerns over tight supplies continued to fade away.

Natural gas futures ended Thursday’s session down 1.2%, or 5.0 cents, to settle at $4.120.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in August fell to a session low of $4.106 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since January 10, before turning higher to settle at $4.146 by close of trade, up 0.63%, or 2.6 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $4.106 per million British thermal units, the low from July 3 and resistance at $4.459, the high from July 2.

Nymex natural gas prices lost 5.06%, or 22.1 cents, on the week, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended July 4 rose by 93 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 92 billion cubic feet.

The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 72 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.022 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 24.4% below their level this time last year and 27.5% below the five-year average.

Meanwhile, updated weather-forecasting models called for cooler temperatures across most parts of the heavily-populated Midwest and Northeast regions over the next five days.

Demand for natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers significantly decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending July 8.

Net longs totaled 36,906 contracts, down 32.6% from net longs of 54,778 in the previous week.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, crude oil for August delivery settled at $100.83 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 2.83%, or $2.94 a barrel, on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for August delivery slumped 1.64% on the week to settle at $2.869 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: July 14 - 18

            Crude oil futures tumbled to multi-week lows on Friday, as worries over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to subside.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for August delivery slumped to a daily low of $106.27 a barrel on Friday, the weakest level since April 8, before settling at $106.66, down 1.85%, or $2.01.

The August Brent contract lost 3.59%, or $3.98 a barrel, on the week, the biggest weekly decline since early January.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August dropped to a session low of $100.44 a barrel, the weakest since May 13, before ending at $100.83 by close of trade, down 2.04%, or $2.10.

For the week, Nymex oil futures tumbled 2.83%, or $2.94 a barrel, the fourth consecutive weekly loss.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $5.83 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $6.87 in the preceding week.

Investors continued to unwind positions that had priced in the possibility of major supply disruptions stemming from violence in Libya and Iraq.

Libya recently struck a deal with rebels occupying oil ports under terms that would have insurgents give up control over terminals that have been closed for a year. The deal should add 500,000 barrels per day of crude back into the global energy market.

Meanwhile, indications that Iraqi oil exports from the southern part of the country remained insulated from the sectarian violence that has swept the north in recent weeks also weighed.

Oil prices rallied to nine-month highs in June amid fears that an insurgency in northern Iraq would spread to the oil-rich south and disrupt the nation's oil production.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching testimony on monetary policy by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, as well as key data on U.S. June retail sales.

Oil traders will also look ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data this week, including reports on second quarter gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales.

The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending July 8.

Net longs totaled 304,366 contracts as of last week, down 7.8% from net longs of 330,148 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: July 14 - 18

          Gold futures ended Friday’s session little changed near a 16-week high, as demand for the precious metal remained supported amid renewed concerns over the health of Portugal’s banking sector and amid signs that U.S. interest rates will remain on hold for an extended period of time.

Gold hit $1,346.80 an ounce on Thursday, the most since March 19, before settling at $1,339.20, up 1.13%, or $14.90.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor August delivery slipped 0.13%, or $1.80, on Friday to end the week at $1,321.30 a troy ounce.

Gold prices were likely to find support at $1,312.10, the low from July 7 and resistance at $1,358.00, the high from March 19.

On the week, Comex gold advanced 1.2%, or $16.10 an ounce, the sixth consecutive weekly gain.

Gold prices rallied more than 1% on Thursday as concerns over the fiscal stability of Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo (LISBON:BES) fuelled demand for safe haven assets, amid fears over the risk of contagion.

Concerns eased slightly on Friday after Portugal’s central bank said it was satisfied that the lender is able to fulfill its capital requirements.

Meanwhile, minutes of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting released on Wednesday suggested that the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates.

According to the minutes, officials agreed to end the central bank’s asset purchase program in October, however, little new information was revealed on when the bank could start to hike rates.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching testimony on monetary policy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as well as key data on June retail sales.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending July 8.

Net longs totaled 144,272 contracts, up 5.1% from net longs of 136,929 in the preceding week.

Also on the Comex, silver for September delivery shed 0.22%, or 4.7 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $21.46 a troy ounce, as traders locked in profits after a sharp rally the day before.

Prices hit $21.63 an ounce on Thursday, the most since March 16, before settling at $21.50, up 2.09%, or 44.0 cents.

The September silver futures contract rose 1.21%, or 26.0 cents, on the week, the sixth straight weekly gain.

Data from the CFTC showed that net silver longs totaled 44,517 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 36,697 contracts in the preceding week.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery eased up 0.06%, or 0.2 cents, on Friday to settle at $3.269 a pound by close of trade.

On the week, Comex copper prices inched down 0.03%, or 0.1 cents a pound.

Copper traders looked ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data this week, including reports on second quarter gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 38,367 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 24,767 contracts in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 19 - 23

                            New York-traded crude oil futures edged higher on Friday, amid indications that the U.S. economy is shaking off the effect of a weather-related slowdown over the winter, while traders continued to monitor events in Ukraine.

Nymex oil ends the week with a gain of 1.56% on U.S. optimism, Ukraine worries

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in July advanced 0.44%, or 45 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $101.58 a barrel by close of trade.
Futures were likely to find support at $100.82 a barrel, the low from May 15 and resistance at $101.98 a barrel, the high from May 14.

For the week, Nymex oil futures rose 1.56%, or $1.59 a barrel, the first weekly gain in five weeks.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. housing starts rose 13.2% last month, the largest increase in five months and following a 2.0% increase in March.

The upbeat housing data came one day after a report from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell to a six-year low of 297,000.

The robust data underlined the view that the U.S. economy was regaining traction after being slowed by unusually cold temperatures during the winter months.

Meanwhile, heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, amid concerns over a disruption to supplies from the region.

The conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces continued on Friday, stoking fears that the crisis will further develop and drag the U.S. deeper into the standoff.
Russia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2012 and exported 7.4 million, making it the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday, for insight on the central bank's view of the economy.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending May 13.

Net longs totaled 311,195 contracts as of last week, up 3.75% from net longs of 299,543 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery picked up 0.61%, or 66 cents, on Friday to settle at $109.75 a barrel by close of trade.

The July Brent contract rose 1.69% or $1.86 a barrel on the week, amid growing concerns over a disruption to supplies from Libya.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $8.17 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $7.90 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

                U.S. crude oil futures settled near six-week highs on Thursday as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin prices, while upbeat U.S. economic data bolstered the demand outlook.

Nymex oil futures ended the holiday shortened week with gains of 1.06%.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for delivery in May ended Thursday’s session at $104.58 a barrel, not far from the peaks of $104.97 reached in the previous session. Trading on the NYMEX was closed for Good Friday.

Oil futures moved higher after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region strengthened more than forecast in April.

Crude prices were also supported as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine fanned fears over possible supply disruptions from Russia, the world largest energy exporter.

Concerns over the crisis in eastern Ukraine eased somewhat on Thursday after Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union said an agreement on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis had been reached.

Heightened geopolitical risk overshadowed a report on Wednesday showing a far larger than expected increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 10.01 million barrels in the week ended April 11. It was the largest inventory build since March 2001. Analysts had expected an injection of 2.25 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 394.1 million barrels, the most since June.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 1.66 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 1.27 million barrels.

The May Brent oil contract ended Thursday’s session $109.69 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and ended the week with gains of 0.73%.

The spread between the Brent and the Nymex crude contracts stood at $5.11 a barrel by close of trade, compared to $4.00 in the preceding week. - investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

                  Natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Friday to hit a three-week high, as updated weather forecasting models continued to point to colder than average temperatures in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December advanced 1.53% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.660 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices rallied to a session high of USD3.667 earlier, the strongest level since October 29. The December contract settled 1.09% higher on Thursday to end at USD3.605 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.491 per million British thermal units, the low from November 14 and resistance at USD3.683, the high from October 29.

On the week, December natural gas prices rose 2.75%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Updated weather forecasting models called for chilly temperatures across most parts of the eastern half of the U.S. during the next six-to-ten-days.

Forecasts originally called for mild weather during the period.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 20 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with forecasts.

Inventories rose by 12 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 19 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.834 trillion cubic feet as last week, 2% below last year's unusually high level but 1.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage data range from 15 billion cubic feet to 41 billion cubic feet, compared to a 36 billion cubic feet draw during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 2 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 0.8% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery rose 2.48% on the week to settle at USD2.941 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

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