Oil falls despite positive U.S. jobs data

                  CrudeOil futures traded lower in the early part of Friday’s Asian session despite another positive data point pertaining to the U.S. labor market. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for June delivery fell 0.34% to USD96.06 per barrel in Asian trading Friday after settling down 0.63% at USD96.01 a barrel on Thursday in the U.S. 

Oil traded lower despite some decent U.S. data points. In U.S. economic news, the U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 18,000 last week to a five-year low of 324,000. Analysts expected a reading of 345,000 claims. 

Separately, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $38.8 billion in the first quarter. 

The buoyant jobless claims number comes on the heels of last Friday’s stronger-than-expected April jobs report out of the world’s largest economy. With the U.S. labor market apparently improving, traders speculated that the Federal Reserve may begin winding down its quantitative easing program. 

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. economy added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, up from 138,000 in March, whose figure was revised up from 88,000. April's figures far outpaced analysts' forecasts for a 145,000 figure. 

Elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping that a nuclear Iran could disrupt global oil supply. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the U.S. 

Meanwhile, Brent futures for June delivery rose 0.18% to USD104.29 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com

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Gold falters on dollar strength

           Gold futures fell in the early part of Friday’s Asian session as traders digested some strong data out of the U.S. while embracing the U.S. dollar. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery fell 0.90% to USD1,455.35 per troy ounce in Asian trading Friday after down 0.33% at USD1,468.85 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Thursday. 

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,440.55 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,475.55, Wednesday's high. 

In U.S. economic news, the U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 18,000 last week to a five-year low of 324,000. Analysts expected a reading of 345,000 claims. 

Separately, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $38.8 billion in the first quarter. 

The buoyant jobless claims number comes on the heels of last Friday’s stronger-than-expected April jobs report out of the world’s largest economy. With the U.S. labor market apparently improving, traders speculated that the Federal Reserve may begin winding down its quantitative easing program. 

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. economy added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, up from 138,000 in March, whose figure was revised up from 88,000. April's figures far outpaced analysts' forecasts for a 145,000 figure. 

The Fed has pledged to keep interest rates low until the unemployment drops another 1%. 

Analysts are also pointing to increased physical demand out of Hong Kong and China as catalysts that could be supportive of gold in the coming months. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for July delivery dropped 1.23% to USD23.618 while copper for July delivery fell 0.14% to USD3.328. - investing.com

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Natural Gas erases losses from supply data, weather forecasts support

               Natural gas futures erased losses sustained earlier Thursday after investors looked past bearish supply data and snapped up nicely priced positions on sentiments that warmer weather will hike demand for air conditioning.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in June traded at USD3.981 per million British thermal units, up 0.06%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.890 and a high of USD4.018.

Natural gas prices dropped 2% earlier after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended May 3 rose by 88 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 83 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 30 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 69 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.865 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 737 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 99 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.964 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 109 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 52 billion cubic feet. 

Stocks in the Producing Region were 40 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 805 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 31 billion cubic feet.

Rising temperatures forecast for the coming weeks should hike demand for natural gas in the country's power plants as households and businesses crank up their air conditioning.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June were down 0.53% and trading at USD96.11 a barrel, while heating oil futures for June delivery were up 0.50% at USD2.9293 per gallon. - investing.com

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Longer term fundamental outlook robust for Gold: ETFS

              The longer term fundamentals outlook for gold remains robust despite the sharp fall in prices in recent weeks. The depressed price levels have provided an attractive entry point for physical buyes and bargain hunters, according to ETF Securities Ltd (ETFS) in their weekly report.

The recent hectic buying activity in mainland China, Hong Kong for gold bars, record US coin sales, Indian buying ahead of wedding season, important festivals have all provided the support for gold prices to recover from losses last week, ETFS said.

Volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also reached an all-time high last week, evidence of China's strong return to the market. Investors are also starting to regain confidence in the gold price, with long positions up 33% week-on-week.

On an average, Indians are paying a $10/oz premium to secure supplies (according to the Bombay Bullion Association). With the Akshaya Tritiya festival shortly coming up and the Indian festival and wedding season officially starting in August, physical buyers in India are likely to continue taking advantage of current gold prices. Volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also reached an all-time high last week, evidence of China's strong return to the market. Investors are also starting to regain confidence in the gold price, with long positions up 33% week-on-week.

Key events to watch this week: Investor attention will be sharply focused on the ECB meeting this week, with the consensus expecting a cut in rates. That would mark a bold shift in the ECB's thinking as it has traditionally been reluctant to move rates below 0.75%. FOMC members' reaction to the weak GDP and employment data will be closely observed and the payrolls data for April will give clarification as to how sustained the weakness in the US jobs market was.

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Silver futures rally 2%, tracking gold higher

                               Silver futures rose sharply on Monday, tracking strong gains in gold prices as disappointing U.S. economic data weighed on the U.S. dollar, boosting dollar-denominated commodities.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.45% to trade at 82.20, the weakest level since April 17.

Silver prices often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, as the metal becomes less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for July delivery traded at USD24.33 a troy ounce during European morning trade, up 2.3% on the day.

Comex silver prices rose by as much as 2.6% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD24.38 a troy ounce. 

Silver prices were likely to find support at USD22.86 a troy ounce, the low from April 24 and near-term resistance at USD24.83, Friday’s high.

Silver’s gains came as the U.S. dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as downbeat U.S. GDP data on Friday pressured demand for the greenback.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.5% in the three months to March, missing expectations for growth of 3.0%.

The disappointing data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary easing program, amid lingering concerns over the outlook for the U.S. economic recovery.

Market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s policy statement from the U.S. central bank, for further hints regarding the future of the central bank’s monetary easing program.

Investors will also be awaiting the outcome of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid growing expectations for a rate cut, as well as Friday’s closely watched report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

Silver, like gold, can benefit from such an environment of easy money because of expectations that ample liquidity would put a damper on the value of paper currencies.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery rose 1.3% to trade at USD1,472.15 a troy ounce, while copper for July delivery added 0.3% to trade at USD3.196 a pound.
Courtesy : Investing.com

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Copper futures rise to session high after Italian bond auction

                        Copper futures rose sharply on Monday, climbing to the highest levels of the session after Italy saw borrowing costs fall to multi-year lows at a government debt auction earlier in the day.

Copper prices received an additional boost from a weaker U.S. dollar, as dollar-priced commodities become less expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback falls.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.45% to trade at 82.20, the weakest level since April 17.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for July delivery traded at USD3.222 a pound during European morning trade, up 1.1% on the day.

New York-traded copper prices rose by as much as 1.2% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD3.224 a pound.

Italy’s Treasury sold EUR3 billion worth of ten-year debt at an average yield of 3.94%, the lowest since October 2010 and down from 4.66% at a similar auction last month.

Rome also sold EUR3 billion of five-year government bonds at an average yield of 2.84%, also the lowest since October 2010 and down from 3.65% at a similar auction last month.

Market sentiment found support after a new government was sworn in Italy, ending months of political deadlock after inconclusive elections in February.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was broadly lower against the other major currencies, as Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. first quarter growth data reinforced expectations for continued easing by the Federal Reserve.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.5% in the three months to March, missing expectations for growth of 3.0%.

Market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s policy statement from the U.S. central bank, for further hints regarding the future of the central bank’s monetary easing program.

Investors will also be awaiting the outcome of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid growing expectations for a rate cut, as well as Friday’s closely watched report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery rallied 1.2% to trade at USD1,470.35 a troy ounce, while silver for July delivery surged 2% to trade at USD24.27 a troy ounce.
Courtesy : Investing.com

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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: April 29 - May 3 (investing.com)

                    Natural gas futures bounced off a two-week low in choppy volatile trade on Friday, as investors readjusted positions ahead of the expiration of the May contract.

Contract expiration often leads to volatile sessions as market participants look to close out positions or reposition their portfolios.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in June climbed 1.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD4.248 per million British thermal units.

Despite Friday’s upbeat performance, the June contract still lost 4.25%, the first weekly decline in ten weeks.

Meanwhile, the May natural gas contract expired at the end of Friday’s trading session at USD4.190 per million British thermal units.

Sentiment on the commodity remained upbeat amid easing receding over U.S. inventory levels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage rose by 30 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for an increase of 32 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 43 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 50 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.734 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 32% lower than last year at this time and 5.1% below the five-year average for this time of year. 

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 25 billion cubic feet to 40 billion cubic feet. 

Inventories rose by 31 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 67 billion cubic feet.

Typically this time of year, stockpiles begin to climb as milder spring temperatures curb demand for natural gas. 

Nymex gas prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, gaining almost 30% since mid-February, boosted by calls for colder temperatures in major consuming regions across the U.S. that helped tighten the market.

The June contract rose to a 21-month high of USD4.428 per million British thermal units on April 19.

Still, some analysts have warned that further gains may be limited with spring's low-demand shoulder season looming.

Bank of America said in a research note Thursday that they expect natural gas futures to fall to USD3.50 per million British thermal units this summer before rebounding later this year.

Market participants continued to monitor shifting weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks in an attempt to gauge near term demand prospects.

The Commodity Weather Group said that mostly mild weather was expected across most parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Gas use usually hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for June delivery settled at USD92.89 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, rising 5% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for June delivery advanced 2.6% over the week to settle at USD2.866 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: April 29 - May 3 (investing.com)

                       New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session lower, as concerns over a slowdown in demand from the U.S. resurfaced after official data showed that the economy grew less-than-forecast in the first quarter.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in June shed 0.8% Friday to settle the week at USD92.89 a barrel by close of trade. 

Despite Friday’s weak performance, Nymex oil futures rose 5% on the week, the biggest weekly advance since June.

Oil prices came under pressure after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.5% in the three months to March, missing expectations for growth of 3.0%.

Nymex oil rallied to a two-week high of USD93.86 a barrel on Thursday, as investors closed out bets prices would move lower following a recent slump in prices.

Oil prices are up nearly 8% since hitting a four-month low of USD85.91 a barrel on April 18. 

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on Friday’s data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Oil traders have long been taking cues from the monthly jobs report, the most-closely followed indicator of U.S. employment, because it offers insight into the economic health of the world's biggest crude-oil consumer.  

An improving economy is generally correlated with increased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline.

Market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement, for further hints regarding the future of the central bank’s monetary easing program.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for June delivery declined 0.45% on Friday to settle the week at USD102.95 a barrel.

Despite Friday’s modest decline, the London-traded Brent contract rose 3.4% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD10.06 a barrel, close to a 15-month low.

The gap between the contracts fell below USD10 a barrel on Thursday, amid an improving production outlook in the North Sea and indications of declining stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil futures.

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - Weekly outlook: April 29 - May 3

                        Gold futures rose to a two-week high early Friday, before trimming gains to end little changed as investors booked profits ahead of the weekend and as some chart-based selling set in after prices failed to break above a key resistance level.

Prices remained supported amid ongoing indications of strong physical demand for the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were flat on Friday to settle the week at USD1,461.75 a troy ounce.

Earlier in the session, Comex gold rose to a session high of USD1,484.75 a troy ounce, the strongest level since April 15.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,403.75 a troy ounce, the low from April 22 and near-term resistance at USD1,484.75, Friday’s high.

Despite Friday’s lackluster performance, gold futures rallied 4% on the week, the biggest weekly advance in three months.

Gold prices rose to the highest levels of the day after data showed that the U.S. economy grew less-than-forecast in the first quarter, underling expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its loose monetary policy in place for the indefinite future. 

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.5% in the three months to March, missing expectations for growth of 3.0%.

But prices turned suddenly lower as some technical selling set in towards the end of the session, after futures failed to break above the USD1,485-level, triggering fresh sell orders amid bearish chart signals. 

Indications of surging physical demand in the U.S. and Asia helped contribute to gains earlier in the week.

The U.S. Mint has sold 208,500 troy ounces of gold coins so far in April, the highest since December 2009 and up more three-fold from the 62,000 troy ounces the Mint had sold in all of March.

Buying interest also improved significantly in top consumers India and China, according to local bullion dealers.

Reports of central bank buying also benefitted sentiment. Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan all added to their gold reserves in March, according to International Monetary Fund data released earlier in the week.

Comex gold fell to a 27-month low of USD1,322.25 an ounce on April 16. Since then, the yellow metal has climbed nearly 10% as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations.

Prices of the precious metal are still down almost 24% since hitting an all-time high of USD1,920.80 an ounce in September 2011, sparking fears that gold’s bull run is coming to an end.

In the week ahead, gold traders will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement, for further hints regarding the future of the central bank’s monetary easing program.

Investors will be also be watching Friday’s U.S. data on non-farm payrolls, as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing from the Fed.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank could bring quantitative easing, one of the biggest boosts to gold’s bull run, to an end this year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery shed 0.8% on Friday to settle the week at USD23.94 a troy ounce. Despite Friday’s downbeat performance, silver future prices rose 3.15% on the week.

Comex silver rose to a session high of USD24.78 a troy ounce on Friday, before turning sharply lower after futures failed to break above resistance at the USD24.84-level.

Meanwhile, copper for May delivery tumbled 1.8% on Friday to close the week at USD3.180 a pound. The industrial metal came under pressure following the release of the disappointing U.S. GDP data.

Despite Friday’s heavy losses, Comex copper prices rose 1% on the week as investors close out recent bets prices will move lower, a move known as short covering.

Prices of the red metal are still down almost 20% since hitting a recent high of USD3.978 a pound hit in February 2012, meeting the standard for a bear market.

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Barrick cuts 2013 Gold,Silver price assumptions

           Canada based Barrick Gold, one of the world’s top gold miners by market capitalization, has reduced its key price assumptions for gold, copper and silver in 2013 due to lower than expected prices in Q1 and the downside trend that followed in April.

The price of gold and copper are the main drivers of Barrick's profitability and cash flow, while the silver price is relevant for the economics of its Pascua Lama project on the Chilean-Argentine border.

Gold production fell 4.5% to 1.797 million ounces, while gold sales remained essentially flat at 1.747 million.

Barrick produced 1.80Moz of gold in Q1 at all-in sustaining and had total cash costs of $919/oz and $561/oz, respectively.

Full year gold production guidance is 7.0M-7.4Moz at total cash costs of $610-$660/oz. Full year all-in sustaining cost guidance has been reduced to $950-$1,050/oz from the previous guidance of $1,000-1,100/oz, Barrick said in its results report.

Barrick originally set a gold price forecast of $1,700/oz for this year. The new estimate sees gold averaging $1,450/oz in 2013.

Although silver prices do not significantly impact Barrick's operating earnings, cash flows or gold total cash costs, they will have "a significant impact on the overall economics" of the Pascua Lama project, which is to produce 35Moz of silver in its first five years.

Barrick was expecting an average silver price of $32/oz in 2013 but has lowered the forecast to $24/oz.

Silver averaged $30.11/oz in Q1 but April has seen a steady drop in price. Silver closed at $22.91/oz on Wednesday.

Barrick has hedge protection on 65Moz of silver from 2013-18, inclusive, with an average floor price of $23/oz and an average ceiling price of $53/oz.

Courtesy : Bullionstreet

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