Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

              U.S. natural gas futures fell sharply on Friday, as a break in the cold to milder weather prompted a 

correction in the market after a rapid price run-up which took prices to a four-year high earlier in the week.

The March contract tumbled 1.97% on Thursday to settle at USD4.931 per million British thermal units. Prices rallied to USD5.737 on Wednesday, the highest since January 2010.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March slumped to a session low of USD4.739 per million British thermal units, the weakest since January 31, before trimming losses to settle at USD4.775, down 3.16%.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD4.652 per million British thermal units, the low from January 27 and resistance at USD5.018, the high from February 7.

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 3.39%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

Natural gas futures were pressured on Friday after updated weather forecasting models pointed to moderating temperatures that would curb demand for the heating fuel.

Temperatures are expected to warm following the arctic chill that settled through most of the nation during January.

MDA Weather Services said it expects a "more aggressive warm up" in the Midwest by late next week, while a "more substantial warmth" will build over the central U.S. in its 11- to 15-day forecast.

Bearish speculators spent the session betting that milder weather will decrease demand for the heating fuel.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that natural gas supplies dropped by 262 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 31, compared to expectations for a decline of 270 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.923 trillion cubic feet as of last week, approximately 22% below the five-year average for this time of year and nearly 29% below last year’s unusually high level.

Natural-gas inventories have fallen sharply since November as frigid winter temperatures in the U.S. led households to burn a higher than normal amount of the fuel in furnaces to heat their homes.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers reduced their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending February 4.

Net longs totaled 151,338 contracts, down 11.5% from net longs of 171,029 in the previous week.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery settled at USD99.88 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, up 2.39% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for March delivery picked up 1.64% on the week to settle at USD3.048 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

Read More

Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

         New York-traded crude oil futures rallied more than 2% to trade above USD100-a-barrel for the first time in more than a month on Friday, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and strong gains in U.S. equity markets boosted the appeal of the commodity.

On Thursday, Nymex oil prices settled 0.47% higher to end at USD97.84 a barrel.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March surged to a daily high of USD100.24 a barrel on Friday, the most since December 30, before trimming gains to settle at USD99.88 a barrel, up 2.09% on the day.

U.S. oil futures were likely to find support at USD97.13 a barrel, the low from February 7 and resistance at USD100.42 a barrel, the high from December 30.

On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, climbed 2.39%, the fourth consecutive weekly gain.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, declined 0.29% on Friday to settle the week at 80.75, the lowest since January 30.

Dollar-denominated oil futures contracts tend to rise when the dollar falls, as this makes oil cheaper for buyers in other currencies.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 ended more than 1% higher on Friday, due to perceptions that the economy is improving but not fast enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to rush to taper stimulus programs.

U.S. shares and crude oil have traded in tandem for several months, on the belief share prices act as a proxy for economic sentiment and are a bellwether for oil demand.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

Yet the report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

In the week ahead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched.

Monthly supply and demand reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will also be in focus.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in oil futures in the week ending February 4.

Net longs totaled 275,931 contracts, compared to 260,282 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery soared 2.22% on Friday to settle the week at USD109.57 a barrel, the highest since January 2.

The March Brent contract picked up 2.89% on the week. Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD9.69 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

The London-traded Brent contract was boosted amid concerns over declining output from the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea, which is expected to undergo maintenance in the second quarter this year. - investing.com

Read More

Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

       Gold futures ended Friday’s session higher, after disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data reduced concerns over a further reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus.

Comex gold prices ended Thursday’s session little up 0.02% at USD1,257.20 a troy ounce.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery rose to a session high of USD1,272.00 a troy ounce on Friday, before trimming gains to settle at USD1,262.90 by close of trade, up 0.78% on the day and 1.48% higher for the week.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,240.40 a troy ounce, the low from February 3 and resistance at USD1,274.50, the high from February 5.

Meanwhile, silver for March delivery ended Friday’s session up 0.04% to close the week at USD19.93 a troy ounce. On Thursday, silver prices settled 0.62% higher at USD19.92 an ounce.

The March silver futures contract picked up 4.06% on the week, the first weekly gain in three weeks.

The U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

The unemployment rate inched down to a five-year low of 6.6% from 6.7% in December, while the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63.0% from an almost 35-year low of 62.8% last month.

The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank said it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.

The Fed tapered its monthly asset purchase program by another USD10 billion to USD65 billion a month at its last policy meeting.

In the week ahead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers reduced their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending February 4.

Net longs totaled 59,408 contracts, compared to 60,672 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper for March delivery hit a daily high of USD3.248 a pound on Friday, the most since January 30, before trimming gains to end at USD3.236 a pound, up 0.22%.

Comex copper prices added 1.2% on the week, the first weekly advanced in four weeks. - investing.com

Read More

Copper falls to 7-week low after China PMI data

           Copper futures fell to a seven-week low on Thursday, after data confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector and following the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper its monthly bond-buying program by USD10 billion for the second consecutive meeting.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.231 a pound, the weakest since December 9, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.235 during European morning hours, down 0.15%. 

The March copper contract settled down 0.38% on Wednesday to end at USD3.240 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.217 a pound, the low from December 6 and resistance at USD3.269 a pound, the high from January 29.

China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January, down from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and compared to 50.5 in December.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Meanwhile, the Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision.

The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement "on balance".

The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.

The Fed added it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Market players continued to monitor liquidity conditions in emerging markets, such as Turkey and South Africa. 

Emerging markets economies have been hard hit in recent sessions by worries over the impact of cuts in Fed stimulus and concerns over a possible slowdown in China.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery fell 0.6% to trade at USD1,254.50 a troy ounce, while silver for March delivery declined 0.85% to trade at USD19.39 a troy ounce. - investing.com

Read More

Silver falls to 4-week low after Fed tapers stimulus

             Silver futures fell to a four-week low on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve announced that it will taper its bond-buying program by USD10 billion a month.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD19.28 a troy ounce, the weakest since December 31, before trimming losses to trade at USD19.39 during European morning hours, down 0.8%.

The March contract settled 0.25% higher on Wednesday to end at USD19.55 an ounce. Silver futures were likely to find support at USD19.13 a troy ounce, the low from December 20 and resistance at USD19.96, the high from January 29.

Meanwhile, gold for April delivery traded at USD1,257.00 a troy ounce, down 0.4%.

The Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision.

The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement "on balance".

The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.

The Fed added it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper futures for March delivery inched up 0.1% to trade at USD3.244 a pound. Copper prices slumped to a seven-week low of USD3.231 a pound earlier after data confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector.

China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and down from 50.5 in December.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year - Investing.com

.

Read More

WTI oil futures inch higher ahead of U.S. GDP data

                   U.S. oil futures edged higher on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data to gauge the strength of the world’s largest oil consuming nation.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded in a range between USD97.35 a barrel and USD97.67 a barrel.

Nymex oil prices were last trading at USD97.59 a barrel during European morning hours, up 0.25%.

WTI oil prices settled 0.05% lower on Wednesday to end at USD97.36 a barrel. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.63 a barrel, the low from January 28 and resistance at USD97.80 a barrel, the high from January 24.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision.

The central bank added it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.

Oil traders shrugged off data confirming a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector. China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and down from 50.5 in December.

Meanwhile, market players continued to monitor liquidity conditions in emerging markets, such as Turkey and South Africa. 

Emerging markets economies have been hard hit in recent sessions by worries over the impact of cuts in Fed stimulus and concerns over a possible slowdown in China.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery inched up 0.1% to trade at USD107.94 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at USD10.35 a barrel.  -  Investing.com
 
.

Read More

Gold edges lower after Fed tapers by USD10 billion

               Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve announced that it will taper its bond-buying program to USD65 billion a month following its policy meeting.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery fell to a session low of USD1,255.40 a troy ounce, before trimming losses to trade at USD1,256.90 during European morning hours, down 0.4%.

The April contract rallied 0.94% on Wednesday to settle at USD1,262.20 an ounce as ongoing turbulence in emerging markets saw investors flee riskier assets and move in to safe-havens.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,248.00 a troy ounce, the low from January 28 and resistance at USD1,280.10, the high from January 27.

The Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision.

The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement "on balance".

The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.

The Fed added it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Meanwhile, silver for March delivery fell to USD19.28 a troy ounce, the weakest level since December 31, before paring losses to trade at USD19.37 during early European hours. 

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper futures for March delivery fell 0.2% to trade at USD3.235 a pound, the lowest since December 9.

Data released earlier showed that China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and down from 50.5 in December.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. - Investing.com

Read More

Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: January 27 - 31

                U.S. natural gas futures soared nearly 10% to hit a four-year high on Friday, as frigid temperatures and snowstorms struck from the Midwest to the East Coast for the second time this month, tightening supplies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in February rallied 9.56% on Friday to settle the week at USD5.182 per million British thermal units. 

Earlier in the day, Nymex gas prices hit a session high of USD5.246 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since June 2010.

The February contract settled Thursday’s session up 0.87% to end at USD4.730 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD4.813 per million British thermal units, the low from January 24 and resistance at USD5.246, the high from January 24. 

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices surged 16.5%, the second consecutive weekly gain and the largest increase in nearly three years, after updated weather forecasting models called for fresh blasts of cold air to sweep across the U.S. through the end of January.

The U.S. National Weather Service said that it expected extreme cold conditions to continue in the heavily populated Midwest and Northeast over the next 14-days. 

Bullish speculators spent the session betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that natural gas supplies dropped by 107 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 17. 

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.423 trillion cubic feet as of last week, approximately 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Natural-gas inventories have fallen by 1.411 trillion cubic feet since November 8 as frigid winter temperatures in the U.S. led households to burn a higher than normal amount of the fuel in furnaces to heat their homes.

Some expect supplies at the end of the winter heating season in March to be at their lowest in six years.

Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for inventory levels at the end of March to 1.39 trillion cubic feet earlier in the week, driven by the recent “polar vortex.” Goldman had previously estimated U.S. gas inventories at 1.61 trillion by the end of March.

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 170 billion cubic feet to 239 billion cubic feet, compared to a drop of 191 billion cubic feet during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 162 billion cubic feet.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending January 21.

Net longs totaled 154,643 contracts, up 17.2% from net longs of 128,072 in the previous week.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery settled at USD96.64 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, up 2.12% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for February delivery climbed 3.47% on the week to settle at USD3.137 per gallon by close of trade Friday. - investing.com

Read More

Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: January 27 - 31

             New York-traded crude oil futures fell from a three-week high on Friday, as growing concerns over the economic outlook in emerging markets and the impact on future oil demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March shed 0.7% on Friday to settle the week at USD96.64 a barrel by close of trade. 

On Thursday, Nymex oil prices hit USD97.84 a barrel, the strongest level since January 3, before trimming gains to end at USD97.32 a barrel, up 0.61%.

U.S. oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.12 a barrel, the low from January 22 and resistance at USD97.84 a barrel, the high from January 23. 

On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, climbed 2.12%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Weaker U.S. equities and ongoing turbulence in emerging markets prompted investors to move money out of industrial commodities and into safe haven assets. 

U.S. stocks suffered their worst weekly loss since 2011, with the Dow plunging 318 points on Friday. 

Meanwhile, a selloff in emerging markets accelerated, after the Turkish lira fell to the latest in a series of record lows against the dollar. South Africa’s rand, the Russian ruble and the Argentine peso all fell to multi-year lows against the greenback Friday.

Market sentiment was hit by concerns over a slowdown in China after data on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index fell to a six-month low in January.

The Asian nation is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Despite Friday’s losses, Nymex oil prices posted a weekly gain as the Keystone XL pipeline linking Cushing, Oklahoma, to the U.S. Gulf Coast began making deliveries this week. Flows will rise over the course of the year toward its 700,000-barrel capacity, which should ease bottlenecks that have depressed prices at times.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in oil futures in the week ending January 21.

Gross long oil positions rose by 10,614 contracts to 294,921, while gross short positions increased by 9,833 lots to 64,418. Net longs totaled 230,503 contracts, compared to 229,722 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, Wednesday’s outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion in the bank’s stimulus program.

The policy-meeting will mark the last for outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, as current Vice Chair Janet Yellen prepares to take over.

In addition, the initial estimate of U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product is reported on Thursday.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery advanced 0.28% on Friday to settle the week at USD107.88 a barrel. 

The March Brent contract added 1.29% on the week. Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD11.24 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. - investing.com

Read More

Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: January 27 - 31

         Gold futures ended Friday’s session at a nine-week high, as steep losses in U.S. equities and emerging market currencies boosted the safe haven appeal of the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery hit a session high of USD1,273.20 a troy ounce on Friday, the strongest level since November 20, before trimming gains to settle at USD1,264.30, up 0.16%. 

Comex gold prices rallied 1.91% on Thursday to settle at USD1,262.30 a troy ounce as investors fleeing risk in emerging markets saw gold as an attractive venue.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,230.80 a troy ounce, the low from January 23 and near term resistance at USD1,275.70, the high from November 20. 

On the week, the February Comex gold contract added 1.67%, the fifth consecutive weekly increase and the longest run of weekly gains in 16 months.

A broad based selloff in financial markets Friday spurred safe haven demand, prompting investors to move money out of equities and into gold. U.S. stocks suffered their worst week since 2011, with the Dow plunging 318 points on Friday.

Market sentiment was hit by concerns over a slowdown in China after data on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index fell to a six-month low in January.

Meanwhile, a selloff in emerging markets accelerated on Friday, after the Turkish lira fell to the latest in a series of record lows against the dollar. South Africa’s rand, the Russian ruble and the Argentine peso all fell to multi-year lows against the greenback.

Emerging market currencies have been hard hit since the Federal Reserve announced plans last month to begin scaling back its asset purchase program.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending January 21.

Gross long gold positions declined by 179 contracts to 113,823, while gross short positions fell by 255 lots to 70,470. Net longs totaled 43,353 contracts, compared to 43,277 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, Wednesday’s outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion in the bank’s stimulus program.

The policy-meeting will mark the last for outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, as current Vice Chair Janet Yellen prepares to take over.

In addition, the initial estimate of U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product is reported on Thursday.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery ended Friday’s session down 1.22% to close the week at USD19.76 a troy ounce. The March silver futures contract lost 2.66% on the week. 

Meanwhile, copper for March delivery slumped to a daily low of USD3.260 a pound on Friday, the weakest since December 11, before trimming losses to end at USD3.271 a pound, down 0.43%.

Prices of the industrial metal dropped 1.54% on Thursday to settle at USD3.285 a pound as downbeat manufacturing data out of China fuelled concerns over the strength of the world’s second largest economy and biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Comex copper prices declined 2.18% on the week. - investing.com

Read More