Crude Oil Trades Below $95 As Gasoline Pump Prices Fall

                      Yesterday crude oil tumbled to its lowest point in four months and remains below $95.00 this morning. Oil gained 10 cents to trade at 94.73. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched gauge of business investment, declined a seasonally adjusted 3.7% in the period from July through September, according Commerce Department data released Monday. The decline reverses the better than 4% gain during the second quarter and stands in contrast to the sharp increase in capital expenditures during the early stages of the economic recovery. The Commerce Department will release its initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday. Overall, Monday’s Commerce report showed total factory orders advanced 1.7% in September, propelled by demand for aircraft and military equipment. Orders contracted 0.1% in August. The two months of data were released simultaneously Monday as a result of the government shutdown. The August numbers were initially scheduled for release in early October. The factory orders report was the first of four releases to include two months of data at a time. The next is housing starts on Nov. 26.

Brent oil climbed 17 points to trade at 106.38 but remains weak as data shows increased production throughout the Middle East and lower demand. Geopolitical tensions continue to ease as Libya continues to increase production. Libya, North Africa’s largest oil producer, prepared to resume exports at two terminals, according to the state oil company. U.S. crude stockpiles are at the most in four months, and shipments from Iraq jumped in October, government reports showed last week. A tanker is scheduled to take on oil at Libya’s Mellitah terminal tomorrow and loading will probably resume next week at Hariga once vessels arrive at the eastern port, said Mohamed Elharari, a spokesman for state-run National Oil Corp. Production in the country has been reduced amid nationwide protests. Output was about 250,000 barrels yesterday, Elharari said. It averaged 450,000 barrels a day in October, according to a monthly Bloomberg survey of production across the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

This morning’s slight rise in prices was supported by some positive data. Traders welcomed data that showed euro-zone factory activity edged higher in October, thanks to modest strength in Germany and other northern economies. The Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for the currency bloc rose to 51.3 from 51.1 in September, above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The reading was unchanged from an earlier estimate.

The price of gasoline at the pump for U.S. drivers fell to the lowest level of the year as wide spreads between U.S. and Brent have driven American refiners to produce more fuel than ever for this time of year. The average retail price fell 2.9 cents to $3.265 a gallon in the week ended today, the lowest level since Dec. 4, the Energy Information Administration reported on its website. Prices are 22.7 cents below a year earlier. U.S. refineries produced 9.434 million barrels a day of gasoline the week of Oct. 25, the highest seasonal level in weekly EIA data going back to 1982.  - fxempire

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Crude Oil futures inch up, but still near four-month lows

Crude Oil futures nudged higher during Tuesday’s Asian session, but New York-traded crude still resides near four-month lows.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery rose 0.06% to USD94.68 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The December contract settled up 0.01% at USD94.62 per barrel on Monday.

Global data points played their part in crude’s tepid start to the week. On Monday, euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.3 in October from a final reading of 51.1 in September, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and in line with market forecasts, according to London-based Markit Economics.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September as new orders and production levels rose. Analysts were expecting the figure to remain unchanged at 51.5.

In U.S. economic news out Monday, U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in October from September, in line with expectations.

Oil has traded lower in four straight weeks as traders view the market as adequately supplied. Even output declines in OPEC member Libya, home to Africa’s largest oil reserves, have not contributed much upside to oil prices.

Libya is currently pumping about 250,000 barrels per day, down from 450,000 barrels last month.

After the close of U.S. markets Monday, independent oil giant Anadarko Petroleum said its third-quarter EPS fell to $1.13 from $1.16 a share last year, but revenue rose to $3.85 billion from $3.81 billion.

Elsewhere, Brent crude futures for December delivery rose 0.10% to USD106.32 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - Investing.com

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Gold rises slightly as traders wait on ECB

              Gold futures traded modestly higher during Tuesday’s Asian session as traders eye the European Central Bank meeting later Tuesday.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.14% to USD1,316.50 per troy ounce in Asian trading Tuesday. The December contract settled higher by 0.11% at USD1,314.70 per troy ounce on Monday.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,305.80 a troy ounce, Friday's low, and resistance at USD1,361.70, last Monday's high.

A recent batch of concerning economic data out of the euro zone has some traders betting the ECB will lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth. Recent unemployment data for the region touched a record high.

On Monday, euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.3 in October from a final reading of 51.1 in September, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and in line with market forecasts, according to London-based Markit Economics.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September as new orders and production levels rose. Analysts were expecting the figure to remain unchanged at 51.5.

In U.S. economic news out Monday, U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in October from September, in line with expectations.

Gold traders are also bracing for the October jobs report out of the U.S., which is scheduled to be revealed Friday. An upside surprise with that number could further stoke speculation the Federal Reserve will move to taper its quantitative easing program sometime in the next several months.

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery rose 0.06% to USD21.712 per ounce while copper for December delivery gained 0.13% to USD3.263 per ounce. -
Investing.com

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Crude inches up on U.S., European data, Federal Reserve outlook

                 Crude Oil prices rose in choppy trading on Monday on solid U.S. and European factory reports, while dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials also bolstered the commodity albeit in choppy trading that saw the commodity jump in and out of negative territory.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.67 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.06%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD94.09 and a high of USD95.10. The December contract settled down 1.84% at USD94.61 a barrel on Friday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.73 a barrel, the low from June 24 and resistance at USD98.80 a barrel, the high from Oct. 28.

The euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.3 in October from a final reading of 51.1 in September, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and in line with market forecasts, according to London-based Markit Economics.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI, however, rose to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September as new orders and production levels rose.

Analysts were expecting the figure to remain unchanged at 51.5, and the surprise on the upside gave oil prices a boost.

Meanwhile in the U.S., date released earlier revealed that U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in October from September, in line with expectations.

Also in the U.S. Federal Reserve officials said earlier the U.S. central bank should not scale back its USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases until economic fundamentals display noted improvements.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell stressed the need to keep stimulus programs such as monthly asset purchases in place though they didn't indicate when monetary authorities should begin tapering and then asset purchases.

Monthly bond purchases aim to spur recovery by driving down interest rates, weakening the dollar in the process.

A weaker greenback makes oil a nicely priced asset on dollar-denominated exchanges.

Meanwhile on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery were up 0.27% at USD106.20 a barrel, up USD11.53 from its U.S. counterpart. -
Investing.com

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Gold gains as market preps for ECB rate cut, lackluster U.S. jobs report

                   Gold prices rose on Monday amid expectations for the European Central Bank to trim interest rates this week, while expectations for a modest increase in the number of nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. also bolstered the yellow metal's appeal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,315.00 during U.S. afternoon hours, up 0.14%.

Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,311.00 a troy ounce and high of USD1,322.10 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,305.80 a troy ounce, Friday's low, and resistance at USD1,361.70, last Monday's high.

The December contract settled down 0.79% at USD1,313.20 a troy ounce on Friday.

Sluggish inflation rates, elevated unemployment numbers and soft data elsewhere in the euro zone have many convinced the European Central Bank will trim interest rates at a policy meeting this week, which sparked demand for gold as a hedge to a weaker euro.

Solid data hitting the wire earlier capped gold's advance somewhat by giving the single currency some support.

The euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.3 in October from a final reading of 51.1 in September, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and in line with market forecasts, according to London-based Markit Economics.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September as new orders and production levels rose.

Analysts were expecting the figure to remain unchanged at 51.5.

Meanwhile in the U.S., date released earlier revealed that U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in October from September, in line with expectations.

The dollar traded lower, however, as investors weighed possible market reactions to the release of the October U.S. jobs report due out on Friday.

Markets were expecting modest increases in the number of new nonfarm payrolls added in October, which would likely convince the Federal Reserve to leave stimulus programs unchanged until 2014.

Stimulus measures such as the Fed's USD85 billion monthly bond-purchasing program weaken the dollar to spur recovery, making gold an attractive hedge.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery was down 0.75% at USD21.673 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery was down 1.29% and trading at USD3.256 a pound. -
investing.com -

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Natural gas extends losses on forecasts for mild autumn U.S. weather

            

                       Natural gas prices extended Friday's losses into Monday after weather reports continued to call for mild temperatures hovering over much of the eastern half of the U.S. through the first half of November.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.433 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, down 2.29%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.408 and a high of USD3.468.

The December contract settled down 1.90% at USD3.513 per million British thermal units on Friday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.245 per million British thermal units, the low from Aug. 12, and resistance at USD3.869, the high from Oct. 16.

Updated weather forecasting models called for normal to above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. through mid-November, just as they did last week, which sent natural gas prices dropping on Monday.

Milder temperatures cut into the need for heating or air conditioning this time of year, lowering demand for natural gas at the nation's thermal power generators.

Inventory data released on Thursday also pressured prices lower.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 38 billion cubic feet during the week before last.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet as last week, 3.1% below last year's unusually high level but 1.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 33 billion cubic feet to 45 billion cubic feet, compared to a 27 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December were down 0.06% and trading at USD94.55 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery were down 0.41% and trading at USD2.8702 per gallon. - Investing.com

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Natural gas plunges to 11-week low as mild weather forecasts weigh

            Natural gas futures tumbled to the lowest level since late-August on Monday, as meteorologists predicted milder weather that would limit heating fuel demand.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.440 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, down 2.1%. 

Nymex gas prices tumbled to a session low of USD3.408 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since August 20.

The front-month December contract ended 1.9% lower on Friday to settle at USD3.513 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.386 per million British thermal units, the low from August 18 and resistance at USD3.569, the high from November 1.

Weather-forecasting models continued to point to mild temperatures across most parts of Midwest and Eastern U.S. over the next six-to-ten days.

Bearish speculators are betting on the warm weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 38 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet as last week, 3.1% below last year's unusually high level but 1.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 33 billion cubic feet to 45 billion cubic feet, compared to a 27 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December fell 0.1% to trade at USD94.53 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery dipped 0.55% to trade at USD2.866 per gallon. - Investing.com 

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Gold futures inch higher after Bullard comments

                Gold futures inched higher on Monday, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank does not have to be in a "hurry" to reduce its monthly bond-purchasing program.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,318.10 a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, up 0.4%. 

Prices held in a tight range between USD1,311.00 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of USD1,322.10 a troy ounce. The December contract ended 0.79% lower on Friday to settle at USD1,313.20 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,327.30, the high from November 1.

Uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy continued after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said Monday that the central bank does not need to rush to scale back its USD85-billion-a-month stimulus program because inflation is low.

Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee this year, also said that there had been substantial progress on the labor market.

His comments came after Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said that the central bank should scale back its stimulus measures as soon as possible.

Speaking at a conference in Sydney on Monday, Fisher said that he did not expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to increase or go on indefinitely.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

Gold prices have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the Fed would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery shed 0.1% to trade at USD21.81 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery dropped 1.25% to trade at USD3.257 a pound. - Investing.com 

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Silver futures fall to 12-day low on Fed taper concerns

            Silver prices traded at the lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday, as renewed uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus measures weighed on sentiment.

Prices of the precious metal have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the Fed would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for December delivery traded at USD21.70 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.6%. 

Silver prices fell to a session low of USD21.61 a troy ounce earlier, the weakest level since October 17.

The December contract ended 0.14% lower on Friday to settle at USD21.83 a troy ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at USD21.10 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD22.62, the high from October 31.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said earlier that the Fed should scale back its stimulus measures as soon as possible.

Speaking at a conference in Sydney on Monday, Fisher said a "fiscally irresponsible" U.S. government counteracted the effects of accommodative Fed policy. 

He also added that he did not expect the central bank's USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program to increase or go on indefinitely.

“At the earliest possible moment we need to focus on transitioning back to having an interest-rate-driven monetary policy,” Fisher said.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

Silver traders have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for December delivery inched up 0.1% to trade at USD1,314.50 a troy ounce, while copper for December shed 0.65% to trade at USD3.277 a pound.  - Investing.com

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Crude oil futures fall to 4-1/2-month low on U.S. demand concerns

                   Crude oil futures fell to the lowest level in more than four months on Monday, as ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.72 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, up 0.1%. 

New York-traded oil futures fell to a session low of USD94.09 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 26.

The December contract ended down 1.84% on Friday to settle at USD94.61 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD96.64 a barrel, the high from November 1.

Nymex oil futures lost 3.3% last week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond-purchasing program.

The U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

The central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy following its policy-setting meeting last week, sparking speculation the Fed could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Investors shrugged off a report on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% from a month earlier in September, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery was little changed to trade at USD105.91 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD11.19 a barrel. - investing.com

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