Gold Rises as Dollar Drops; Platinum Gains on Supply Woes

                    Gold futures rose as the dollar’s decline boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Platinum climbed on South African supply concerns amid labor turmoil.

The greenback snapped the longest rally since May against a basket of 10 currencies. Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint this year surpassed the total for all of 2012, data on the mint’s website showed on Nov. 1.

“The dollar’s weakness is supporting gold,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “There are some people who are still stocking up on physical gold.”

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4 percent to $1,318.50 at 10:48 a.m. on the Comex inNew York. On Nov. 1, the price touched $1,305.60, the lowest for a most-active contract since Oct. 17.

Through Nov. 1, gold tumbled 22 percent this year, heading for the first annual drop since 2000. Some investors lost faith in the metal amid a rally in U.S. equities and low inflation.

Silver futures for December delivery fell 0.1 percent to $21.825 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, the price touched $21.61, the lowest since Oct. 17.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery increased 0.1 percent to $1,454 an ounce. The price climbed 2.5 percent in October.

South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers began a strike yesterday over wages at Northam Platinum Ltd. The company proposed a meeting tomorrow with workers.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the owner of the world’s largest mine, said today that first-quarter output dropped 17 percent. - bloomberg.com

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Copper Falls a Third Session on Speculation Fed to Slow Stimulus

                          Copper fell for a third session in New York on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of economic stimulus in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal.

Richard Fisher, president of the Fed’s Dallas branch, said today he wouldn’t rule out backing a reduction by March of the central bank’s $85 billion-a-month debt-buying, depending on economic conditions. James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed, said three days earlier an improving labor market might warrant less stimulus.

“The market might be sensitive to one or two Fed official comments on QE tapering from time to time,” Richard Fu, director for Asian commodity trading at Newedge Group SA in London, said in a note today.

Copper for delivery in December slumped 0.6 percent to $3.279 a pound by 7:43 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.6 percent to $7,198 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Fed policy-makers decided last week to maintain the rate of stimulus. The central bank will only start slowing the purchases in March, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed last month. Communist Party leaders in China, the biggest copper user, will enter a policy-making summit this week with services and manufacturing surveys showing a strengthening economy.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell 0.4 percent to 474,675 tons, daily data showed. Inventories in New Orleans, the biggest repository for the metal, gained for a fourth session after 29 straight drops. Orders to take the metal from warehouses fell 1 percent to 285,025 tons.

Tin for delivery in three months fell 0.2 percent to $22,750 a ton on the LME, erasing a climb of as much as 0.6 percent. The metal for immediate delivery traded at a $9.60-a-ton premium to the three-month contract. Backwardation, or prices for earlier deliveries above later contracts, usually indicates limited supplies.

Nickel, lead, zinc and aluminum reached two-week lows in London. - Bloomberg.com

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Crude Oil slightly higher, but still below USD95 per barrel

              Crude Oil futures traded slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session, but crude remained below the psychologically important USD95 per barrel level after being hammered last week. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery inched up 0.02% to USD94.63 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled lower by 1.84% last Friday. 

On the week, U.S. oil futures lost 3.31% on the week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks. 

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD97.00 a barrel, the high from October 31.

Oil was pressured last Friday despite some positive U.S. data. In U.S. economic news out last Friday, the Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0. 

Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Weekly U.S. supply data released earlier in the week showed that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June. 

In global oil news, media reports indicate Israel plans to drill for oil in the West Bank, though there is already speculation regarding how much of the oil there actually belongs to Israel. 

Russia said its oil output averaged 10.59 million barrels per day last month, a record in the post-Soviet era. The country is the world’s largest oil producer. 

Elsewhere, Brent futures for December delivery rose 0.20% to USD106.09 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com

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Gold rises modestly in subdued Asian trade

               Gold futures traded slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session in calm trade as traders are still mulling when the Federal Reserve could taper its quantitative easing program, which would likely wreak havoc on gold prices. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.06% to USD1,314.00 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled down 0.79% at USD,1313.20 per ounce last Friday. 

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.9%, the largest weekly decline in seven weeks. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,359.40, the high from October 30. 

Gold came under some pressure last Friday following some positive U.S. data that encouraged investors to stick with riskier assets. 

In U.S. economic news out last Friday, the Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0. 

The data sparked speculation that the Fed could move to trim its USD85 billion-per-month bond-buying program sooner than some market participants would like to see happen. In recent weeks, markets have become comfortable with the fact the Fed is likely to taper in the latter part of the first quarter of 2014. 

However, the Fed recently reiterated its tapering plans are not tied to the calendar, but rather to the strength of U.S. data, meaning bad economic data is actually good for stocks and gold. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery rose 0.13% to USD21.865 an ounce while copper for December delivery added 0.14% to USD3.304 an ounce. - investing.com

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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                 Natural gas futures tumbled nearly 2% on Friday to hit a four-week low, as market participants continued to focus on weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December dropped 1.9% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.513 per million British thermal units.

Earlier in the day, Nymex gas prices fell to a session low of USD3.508, the weakest level since October 4. 

The December contract settled down 1.08% on Thursday to end at USD3.581 per million British thermal units. 

Nymex gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.482 per million British thermal units, the low from October 4 and resistance at USD3.660, the high from October 30.

On the week, December natural gas prices plunged 7.03%, the biggest weekly decline in two months.

Weather-forecasting models continued to predict that currently cool temperatures in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. will give way to largely mild temperatures over the next six-to-ten days.

Weather-forecasting models continued to predict that currently cool temperatures in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. will give way to largely mild temperatures over the next six-to-ten days.

Bearish speculators are betting on the warm weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, U.S. supply levels also remained in focus. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 38 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet as last week, 3.1% below last year's unusually high level but 1.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 33 billion cubic feet to 45 billion cubic feet, compared to a 27 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 36 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery settled at USD94.61 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, dropping 3.31% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for December delivery shed 0.85% on the week to settle at USD2.883 per gallon by close of trade Friday. -investing.com

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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                  New York-traded crude oil futures tumbled below USD95-a-barrel for the first time since late-June on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories drove prices lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December dropped 1.84% on Friday to settle the week at USD94.61 a barrel by close of trade. 

Nymex oil prices fell to a session low of USD94.36 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 26.

The December contract settled down 0.4% at USD96.38 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.71 a barrel, the low from June 26 and resistance at USD97.00 a barrel, the high from October 31.

On the week, U.S. oil futures lost 3.31% on the week, the seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks.

The dollar rallied after stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may scale back stimulus measures sooner-than-expected.

The Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. 

The Fed maintained the pace of its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program following its monthly meeting on Wednesday, but kept tapering plans on the table after the central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy.

Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing, sparking speculation the central bank could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at 80.80, the strongest level since September 18.

Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Weekly U.S. supply data released earlier in the week showed that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week to 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

U.S. crude prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on fourth-quarter economic growth and eroded demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil traders now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for December delivery plunged 2.69% on Friday to settle the week at USD105.91 a barrel, the lowest closing price since July 5.

On the week, the London-traded Brent contract lost 0.95%, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD11.30 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

Brent futures were pressured by news that oil production in Libya is increasing.

The North African country’s daily oil output rose to approximately 400,000 barrels a day on Thursday, an improvement of nearly 100,000 barrels from earlier in the week.  - investing.com

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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: Nov. 4 - 8

                  Gold futures ended Friday’s session at a two-week low, after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering stimulus sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery slumped 0.79% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,313.20 a troy ounce. 

Comex gold prices fell to a session low of USD1,305.60 a troy ounce earlier in the day, the weakest level since October 17. 

The December contract tumbled 1.9% on Thursday to settle at USD1,323.70 a troy ounce as investors liquidated their long positions amid uncertainty surrounding the Fed's stimulus program.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,359.40, the high from October 30.

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.9%, the largest weekly decline in seven weeks.

The Institute of Supply Management said Friday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0.

The upbeat data fuelled speculation that the Fed may start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program as soon as next month, after the central bank sounded more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy on Wednesday.

Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing, sparking speculation the central bank could start tapering stimulus at its December meeting.

The U.S. dollar strengthened as traders reassessed their expectations regarding the duration of the Fed’s bond-buying program.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at 80.80, the strongest level since September 18.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold traders now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. economic data later in the week ahead to help assess the timing for a reduction in the Fed’s bond-purchasing program.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Gold prices are down approximately 22% this year on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its USD85 billion monthly bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery dipped 0.14% on Friday to settle the week at USD21.83 a troy ounce, the lowest since October 17. Silver prices settled 4.86% lower at USD21.86 on Thursday.

On the week, silver future prices lost 3.53%, reversing two consecutive weekly gains.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery inched down 0.06% on Friday to close the week at USD3.298 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures shed 0.75% to settle at USD3.300 a pound.

Prices of the red metal advanced 0.87% on the week, as upbeat Chinese manufacturing data boosted speculation demand from the world’s largest copper consumer will improve.

Copper traders often use manufacturing numbers as indicators for future copper demand growth, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector. - investing.com

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Natural gas fall on forecasts for mild autumn weather across U.S.

                  Natural gas prices fell on Friday after weather reports continued to call for mild temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. through the first half of November.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.532 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, down 1.38%. 

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.511 and a high of USD3.578.

The December contract settled down 1.08% at USD3.581 per million British thermal units on Thursday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.482 per million British thermal units, the low from Oct. 4, and resistance at USD3.869, the high from Oct. 16.

Updated weather forecasting models called for normal to above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. through Nov.15.

Milder temperatures cut into the need for heating or air conditioning this time of year, lowering demand for natural gas at the nation's thermal power generators.

Inventory data released on Thursday also pressured prices lower.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Oct. 25 rose by 38 billion cubic feet, higher than forecasts for an increase of 36 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 120 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 58 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.721 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 91 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 17 billion cubic feet. 

Stocks in the Producing Region were 102 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1.161 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 18 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December were down 1.44% and trading at USD94.99 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery were down 2.03% and trading at USD2.8940 per gallon. - investing.com

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Crude falls on fears of U.S. supply glut, stronger dollar

            Crude Oil prices fell on Friday as U.S. supply concerns continued to overshadow a string of positive U.S. economic indicators suggesting recovery is picking up and will hike demand for fuel and energy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.91 a barrel during U.S. trading, down 1.53%. 

The commodity hit a session low of USD94.70 and a high of USD96.65. The December contract settled down 0.40% at USD96.38 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.73 a barrel, the low from June 24 and resistance at USD98.80 a barrel, the high from Oct. 28.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 25, well above expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels. 

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 383.9 million barrels, the highest level since June.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, compared to expectations for a drop of 140,000 barrels.

Concerns that demand may be improving but failing to make a serious dent in supplies pushed prices lower despite advancing economic indicators.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index  rose to 56.4 in October from 56.2 in September, defying expectations for a decline to 55.0. 

The report came a day after data showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region expanded at the fastest rate in 30 years in October, while a separate report showed that U.S. initial jobless claims fell in line with expectations last week.

Meanwhile, a stronger dollar, the product of advancing U.S. economic indicators, softened oil prices as well.

A strong greenback makes oil less attractive on dollar-denominated exchanges.

Meanwhile on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery were down 2.04% at USD106.62 a barrel, up USD11.71 from its U.S. counterpart. - investing.com

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Gold drops as dollar gains on expectations for end of Fed stimulus

                 Gold prices dropped on Friday after an advancing U.S. factory gauge stoked already growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin winding down stimulus measures in the coming months.

Stimulus measures such as the Fed's USD85 billion monthly bond-purchasing program weaken the dollar to spur recovery, making gold an attractive hedge. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,310.00 during U.S. afternoon hours, down 1.03%.

Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,305.80 a troy ounce and high of USD1,327.30 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,251.10 a troy ounce, the low from Oct. 15, and resistance at USD1,361.70, Monday's high.

The December contract settled down 1.90% at USD1,323.70 a troy ounce on Thursday.

In the U.S., a widely-watched factory barometer beat expectations and fanned expectations for the Federal Reserve to scale back dollar-weakening stimulus programs in the coming months, which sent the dollar rising.

The Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.4 in October from 56.2 in September, defying expectations for a decline to 55.0. 

The report came a day after data showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region expanded at the fastest rate in 30 years in October, while a separate report showed that U.S. initial jobless claims fell in line with expectations last week.

Expectations for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates possibly next week bruised the euro and sent the dollar rising even further, which exacerbated gold's losses.

On Thursday, official data revealed that the euro zone's consumer price index rose 0.7% in October, the slowest pace since November 2009, after rising 1.1% in September, while the unemployment rate came in at a record high 12.2% in September.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery was up 0.05% at USD21.877 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery was up 0.04% and trading at USD3.302 a pound. - investing.com

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